NBA: Early season predictions feat. Kevin Love, Roy Hibbert and the Indiana Pacers

So far, 10-12 games (depending on what team) have been played during the 2013-2014 NBA season. We’re an eighth (eighthway?) through and I’m ready to make some predictions based on what I’ve seen around the league so far. Let’s start off with individual awards.

Most Valuable Player- Kevin Love

Kevin Love is the best player in the NBA at the moment

This is indisputable. The fact that any player not named LeBron James can average 26.7 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists a game is crazy, it’s disgusting. When we find out its tall, bearded, skinny-armed Kevin Love from the Minnesota Timberwolves? Than it becomes more ridiculous. Love is every fantasy basketball players wet dream. He can do it all and he can do it all well. Three point range? Check. Howard-like rebound numbers? Check. Shooting close to 50% on 18 shots a game? Check. He’s not known for his leaping ability, nor his strength on the block, qualities that big men like DeAndre Jordan and Andrew Bynum may boast about. But he outrebounds them all and he does it with position. Love is proving that you don’t need overwhelming athleticism to excel in this league. You can do it by following basic basketball fundamentals. And being a fucking basketball genius.

The best part about it is that it isn’t an illusion. If Love is healthy, he’s going to do this all year. Unfortunately, staying healthy is something Love isn’t that great at. Love has only played a combined 73 games during his last two seasons, a statistic he’s going to have to change this year if he wishes to lead a talented Timberwolves roster to the height of the Western Conference. He’s a smart passer, a great free-throw shooter (not just for his position, but in terms of the whole league), and doesn’t get in foul trouble. If Kevin Love keeps producing, a Finals ring isn’t the only thing LeBron isn’t getting this year.

Defensive Player of the Year- Roy Hibbert

Roy Hibbert #55 of the Indiana Pacers shoots against Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons on November 5, 2013 at The Palace of Auburn Hills in Auburn Hills, Michigan

God I love talking about Hibbert, dubbed as the “Sheriff of the Restricted Area” by Grantland’s Zach Lowe. Mostly because people like Matt Tuckness don’t believe in him at all, and I love proving them wrong. Hibbert should have won the award last year, but he was robbed by one of the Fat Bros. in Memphis. He made everyone realize how stupid they were in last years playoffs when his presence on the court completely changed the way opposing coaches ran their offense. If Hibbert had been on the court in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year and had been there to contest LeBron’s driving lay-up as time expired, than there is no way Indiana loses that series. Alas, that didn’t happen and the Heat went on to win it.

So far this season, Hibbert is averaging 4.6 blocks per game. He is one of only two players in the league averaging over three blocks a game, the other being Anthony Davis with 3.6. Hibbert isn’t even playing the whole game. His PER 36 minutes of play stats show that if the big 7’2 center was playing the entire game he would be averaging close to 6 blocks a game. I would be scared shitless to drive to the hoop against a player who has amassed more blocks this season than 15 NBA teams have total. When Hibbert is protecting the paint, opponents only make three out of every ten shots the take inside. My mind is blown. Those stats haven’t been seen in a decade, back when Dikembe Mutombo, a former DPoY receipient played.

Most Improved Player of the Year- Eric Bledsoe/Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis contests an Eric Bledsoe lay-up. Both have improved tremendously this year.

I’ve been really impressed with the play of Eric Bledsoe and “The Big Brow” so far this year, but if I had to choose one, I would go with Davis. Everyone knew that Bledsoe was a phenomenal player, he just had the unfortunate situation of being stuck behind the leagues best point guard in Chris Paul last season. When he did get a chance to play, Bledsoe dazzled fans and players alike with his inhuman athletic prowress. Since being traded to the Phoenix Suns this offseason, Bledsoe is well on his way to meeting his true potential, averaging 20 points and close to 7 assists on the season; a 12-point, 4-assist increase from last year in only 14 more minutes of play. Granted, he’s on a Suns team that has him as their main offensive threat and he’s shooting poorly from beyond the arc while committing four turnovers a game, but still, a vast improvement from last year.

Meanwhile, down in New Orleans, Davis is doing it all on both ends of the floor. He had injury issues during his rookie season last year and played only 64 games, but he still managed to put up impressive numbers, scoring 13 points on above 50% shooting and grabbing 8 boards a game. His 1.8 blocks per game also showed the elite nature of his defense. Well, I guess things change when your healthy. I don’t know if Davis is scaring opponents away with the agressive nature of his unibrow, but whatever he’s doing is working wonders for him. Davis is playing 35 minutes a game and averaging 21 points, leading the Pelicans on an efficient 48% shooting. Davis worked hard on a mid-range jumper this off-season, probably why he didn’t have time to trim the ‘brow, and it’s really shown at the beginning of the season as defenders have to respect his shot, playing closer defense and affording him the opportunity to drive past them to the hoop. He’s been able to finish well in transition and take care of the ball (averaging 1.3 turnovers in 35 minutes is no easy feat). While his offense has improved, his defense is off the charts. Known in college for his defensive prowress, Davis is letting the entire league know how good he is this year. Davis is second in the league in blocks (3.6) and seventh in the league in steals (2.1). His foul rate is 3 per game, a remarkable feat considering he goes for the block and steal so often.

Here are my postseason predictions:

FINAL FOUR TEAMS

Indiana Pacers (2014 NBA Champions)

Indiana Pacers

Up until their last game, the Pacers had remained undefeated during this young season. It is interesting that the Pacers defeated the likes of the Chicago Bulls, Memphis Grizzlies, and Brooklyn Nets with an offense that ranks 21st in the league and a passing and rebounding game that is just average. The answer lies in their defense. Indiana is holding opponents to an average of 86.3 points a game, the best mark in the league. Wowza. Their play lends credence to the idea that “offense wins games, defense wins championships”. However, defense isn’t the only reason that the Pacers are going to make it deep into the playoffs. Part of the reason the Pacers are so successful is because they are made up of role players, everyone understands their responsibilities and no one tries to win games by themselves. Their chemistry is off the charts, and it should be if they boast the league’s top defense, as communication and trust in your teammates is the basis of any good defense.

Individually, Lance Stephenson, Indiana’s mercurial starting shooting guard has taken off this year. A poor outside shooter last year, Stephenson has been lights out this year, shooting 45% from beyond the arc. His range has allowed the Pacer’s big men to operate freely in the paint. Even though he’s not the team’s point guard, coach Frank Vogel trusts his playmaking abilities and often has Stephenson bring the ball up and as a result, Stephenson leads the team with five assists a game.

The Pacers’ bench is deeper than it has been in years and is the best in the Eastern Conference, leagues better than Miami’s. Luis Scola, the mid-range magician, is a seasoned veteran who makes big plays and committs few mistakes. Ian Mahinmi, a capable back-up for Hibbert and David West has proven himself on the defensive end time and time again and ensures that not all of Indiana’s rim protection leaves when the Sherriff takes a seat. Last, we have C.J. Watson, a would-be starter on just about every other team but has brought scoring and passing to a second-unit that never lets up in offensive and defensive intensity when they’re on the floor.

Miami Heat

Miami Heat

No, I do not have the Heat completing their three-peat. It’s not only because I hate LeBron James and believe the Basketball Gods will never let a team with Michael Beasley win a championship. They’ve had a sluggish start to the year despite a relatively easy schedule and they are currently dead last in the league in rebounds a game. A ridiculous argument was presented to me stating that the Heat are playing poorly because everyone is gunning for them. That’s bullshit. Everyone has been gunning for Miami every since James and Chris Bosh arrived in South Beach. No one is gunning for them more than last year or the year before. The pressure of every team trying to upend the Heat shouldn’t pressure them, it should motivate them. Besides, I doubt the Heat feel more pressured now than they did in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Let’s start with the stars. LeBron is still playing as efficient as he always does, not as efficient as Kevin Love, but definitely in the top three in the league. His three-point shooting is off the charts and he’s dishing out 5 assists and grabbing 6 boards a game. The Raptor is not. Chris Bosh is shooting well from all over the floor, and scoring 16 points a game. But that’s literally all he’s doing. For a starting power forward of Bosh’s caliber averaging five rebounds a game? That’s shameful. Especially if you are averaging less than one assist a game and committing more fouls than anyone on your team. That shows lack of effort and hustle and theres no way Bosh is going to get another ring if he doesn’t pick it up a notch. The ailing Dwyane Wade doesn’t bode well for the Heat either. Having to take the second game of the season off to rest only spells trouble when your partaking in a sport with a 82-game season and an additional 20 games if you want to win the Finals. Wade is shooting 3?s like Howard shoots free-throws, making a paltry 28% of his long-range attempts. Wade used to get to the line close to 11 times a game and now he’s down t0 five, and only making three of those five attempts.

Now to the bench. I cannot wait to start talking about this bench. There is one bright spot here and it is Ray Allen. The NBA’s greatest shooter is averaging close to 12 points a game and shooting 38% from beyond the arc. He’s keeping the bench numbers up, but there are certainly glaring issues. The biggest problem I have with this bench is their lack of defense. Beasley, Allen, and Lewis are virtually non-existent on the defensive end and Shane Battier and Chris “Birdman” Anderson are nowhere near as dominant as they used to be. Battier is a shell of his defensive self, shooting as poorly as he did before the finals last year and it doesn’t look like he’ll be returning to top form anytime soon. Battier used to be one of the NBA’s most feared defenders and was so valuable because he could guard four of the five positions in basketball. This season, he looks as old as he is (36) on the court and is averaging five points on 41% shooting overall. The Heat took a chance on Birdman last year and were rewarded with his excellent play in the postseason. Sadly, this has not transitioned over to this year’s campaign as Birdman isn’t hustling for boards like he should be, is committing way too many fouls, and is late on almost all his defensive rotations.

The Heat are good enough to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, but please do not entertain any fantasies like my friend Matthew and expect them to win another championship.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors will make it to the Western Conference finals this year, and deservedly so. Besides being the most exciting team in the league, they boast a top ten offense and defense. Their backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson is the most dangerous in the league, and the addition of Andre Iguodala this offseason has already paid huge dividends. David Lee is an excellent offensive threat that more than makes up for his defensive woes. The Warriors can get hot at ANY second from beyond the arc and drop a ton of points on you. Every Warrior game is a must watch because either Klay or Steph can hit nine 3-pointers like its nothing or you’ll see some exploding dunks by Iggy or Harrison Barnes. They are excellently coached, have a great fan base, and are competent players, so why will they fail to make the Finals?

Once again, a weak bench, made weaker with the loss of Jermaine O’Neal this pas week, will prevent the Warriors from making a real run at the title this season. The addition of Mareese Speights this offseason no doubt adds a larger interior presence and increased rebounding, but his offensive woes prevent him from being the anchor of the second unit. Barnes might rotate in and out of the starting line-up, but he has already shown injury issues this year, has an inconsistent three-point shot, and ball-watches on defense. That’s about all for meaningful bench players. Draymond Green is still struglling to find his niche and Kent Bazemore is more effective celebrating on the bench that on the court.

San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs

The ageless Spurs will still be playing come late May, mark my words. Does anyone really doubt that? Sure, the production of the Big Fundamental is down, yet somehow the Spurs are 9-1. They boast a top-five defense, and as long as they are coached by Gregg Popovich, last year’s Western Conference Champions will always be competitive in the NBA. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule so far, the only two meaningful teams San Antonio has beat are Golden State and the Knicks, yet I still expect them to be one of the top three in the West when the regular season ends. Here are the usual suspects: Tony Parker is the best point guard in the league. I thought he had proved that to everyone at the end of last season’s playoffs, but evidently not. Most still think Chris Paul own that title, but I completely disagree. Parker’s speed and court vision is unrivaled in the league and the accuracy of his mid-range jumper makes him absolutely unguardable. He runs Pop’s defense to perfection and he’ll lead the Spurs far again this season. Kawhi Leonard has improved as many people thought he would after last year’s breakout season. He’s the Spurs second-leading scorer, third-leading rebounder, and top defender.

The Spurs didn’t make too many additions this offseason, but they did sign former Bull, Marco Bellenelli. Bellenelli is a good physical player, competent on defense, and more than competent as a shooter. He should fit in well in Pop’s rotation because of his ability to space the floor and play smart basketball. I think he was a great addition by San Anotnio and he’s doing relatively well, scoring seven points a game with a 3/1 assist to turnover ratio. With Manu Ginobili and Boris Diaw contributing solid minutes, it’s hard to discount the Spurs from making it to the Finals again. Time and time again, they are discarded by critics as potential champs, who say they’re too weak, too unathletic, too small; there’s always a reason the Spurs won’t succeed. Yet time and time again, these Pop-led Spurs just chug along and ignore the haters. It’s time people stopped underestimating San Antonio, lord knows we’ve all suffered losses at their hands.