NBA playoff predictions: Heat, Spurs, Pacers and Clippers look set to dominate

Western Conference

(1)San Antonio Spurs vs. (8)Dallas Mavericks

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

Regular Season Series: San Antonio Spurs (4-0)

The X-Factor: Dirk Nowitzki

There’s is no way the Mavericks can avoid a quick elimination unless Dirk Nowitzki can pull off a superhuman performance. Though a slightly better offensive team than the Spurs, the Mavericks don’t have the balance or depth to compete with the Spurs on equal terms.

One particular weakness for the Mavericks is its backcourt defence. Neither Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon can keep Tony Parker out of the lane, and once the Frenchmen gets into space in the middle of the floor, high-percentage shots come fast and furious. The Mavericks have the worst defensive rating of all teams in the playoffs. So as the Spurs keep piling on the points Dirk will have to be the man trying to push Dallas towards those gaudy point totals.

Nowitzki has had a brilliant season at the age of 35, and he’s got the unique scoring knack to get makable looks even against a defence as stout as the Spurs. But he is no miracle-worker.

Why San Antonio will win: The Spurs are the first team in nearly 40 years without a player averaging 30 minutes a game, and only backup guards Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills have played at least 80 games. Yet they managed the best record in the NBA. They have had no problems with their long-time rivals all season, and they appear ready for another Finals run.

Why Dallas will win: Nowitzki can’t be counted out, and Monta Ellis is a high-level talent who has put it all together this season. And if any coach can handle Gregg Popovich, it’s the Mavericks’ Rick Carlisle.

Prediction: Spurs in 4.

(2)Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7)Memphis Grizzlies

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Regular Season Series: Oklahoma City Thunder (3-1)

The X-Factor: Memphis’ Adaptability

The Thunder are a team without many weaknesses, so if the Grizzlies are to have any hope of pulling off an upset, they have to exploit the only real chink in the Thunder’s armour – the three-point defence. A wise, adaptable Grizzlies team would spread the floor and keep Tayshaun Prince on the bench.

But Memphis played at the league’s slowest rate and attempted the fewest three-pointers all season. So don’t expect the Grizzlies to attack the Thunder where they are most vulnerable. Instead the Grizzlies will rely on their stingy defence, bruise-inducing style and Marc Gasol’s high-post passing. It’s a strategy that has rejuvenated the Grizzlies since Gasol’s return in January, so it will be hard to fault the Grizzlies for sticking with a system that has helped them play some of the best ball in the league.

Unfortunately, that likely won’t work on the Thunder, who beat the Grizzlies three times this season. The lone defeat came when Russell Westbrook was out with an injury. Expect Kevin Durant to have a much easier time against the Grizzlies in this post-season than the last time around, especially with Westbrook looking healthy enough to help him push the pace.

Memphis is tough, and it won’t go down without a fight. But because the Grizzlies simply don’t have the weapons to capitalize on the Thunder’s weakness, and the fact that Russell Westbrook will be present, they won’t be able to replicate last year’s upset.

Why Oklahoma City will win: Durant-Westbrook is the best star pairing in the NBA. They lost to the Grizzlies last post-season when Westbrook was out, but he has rounded back into form after three knee surgeries. Everything appears sharp entering the playoffs.

Why Memphis will win: The Grizzlies’ size and defensive intensity can be overwhelming, and they slow the game down more than any other team in the league. That could offset any talent disparity and keep Durant and Westbrook humble. Also, they make very few mistakes.

Prediction: Thunder in 6.

(3)Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6)Golden State Warriors

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors

Regular Season Series: Split (2-2)

The X-Factor: Small Ball

With Andrew Bogut out with a broken rib, the Warriors have no choice but to play small against the Clippers’ imposing front line. The Warriors played the Clippers to a regular season draw by matching up physically and following Bogut’s lead. Without him, the Clippers have an uphill task.

The Clippers aren’t afraid to pick up the pace, and they don’t even need to take out their bigs to do so. If Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can turn in a Splash Brother-y effort from behind the arc, the Warriors can win a couple of games. But the Warriors rely on Bogut for their defensive identity. Jermaine O’Neal will see a few minutes here and there, but Lee looks to be the Warriors’ answer at centre. That means that Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are going to have a field day throughout the series.

Unless Bogut makes a miraculous return that allows the Warriors to match up in the size department, this battle for California won’t be as interesting as it promised to be.

Why Los Angeles will win: The Clippers arguably have two of the five best players in the NBA, making them a legitimate threat to beat anyone. And unlike last season, Chris Paul and Griffin are surrounded with sharpshooting, defensive-oriented role players who can get the job done. Also, Bogut’s absence means Griffin and Jordan can dominate the paint.

Why Golden State will win: No team can bury an opponent in three-pointers quite like the Warriors when Curry and Thompson are hot. Andre Igoudala has stabilized the defence and turned it into a physical unit that could frustrate Griffin.

Prediction: Clippers in 5.

(4)Houston Rockets vs. (5)Portland Trail Blazers

Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Regular Season Series: Houston Rockets (3-1)

The X-Factor: Portland’s Interior Defence

The Blazers are a strange defensive team. They were built to stop the three-ball at the expense of an open lane that is only guarded when Robin Lopez is on the floor. On balance, the Blazers’ defence hasn’t really worked. They finished the year ranked 17th in defensive efficiency. That is quite low for any playoff team, but it’ll most likely mean a quick death against the Rockets.

Generally speaking, the Rockets get away with their strategy because they don’t foul. But it’s impossible to avoid fouling James Harden. With a scheme involving penetration, the league’s best foul-drawing guard is going to rack up freebies while putting the Blazers’ extremely thin frontcourt rotation in foul trouble.

If Lopez can somehow force Harden and Co. into taking difficult shots without fouling, the Blazers will be able to get out in transition against Houston’s own shaky defence. Portland’s offence is dangerous, and LaMarcus Aldridge presents a match-up problem for every frontcourt player on Houston’s roster. Expect the Blazers to put together one or two red-hot shooting games from the perimeter, but don’t expect a series upset. The Blazers are just too generous on defence.

Why Houston will win: Their two stars, James Harden and Dwight Howard, are better than LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. They have developed a solid interior defence, while the Blazers struggle at that end. Rockets coach Kevin McHale dwarfs the Blazers head coach Terry Slottsin in playoff experience, and the same could be said about the players.

Why Portland will win: Beverley and Howard have spent the most of April nursing injuries, and the Blazers have the weapons to expose these shortcomings if they are not fully healed. Portland also has one of the best offences in the NBA, and that could be in full effect if the Rockets try to push the tempo, as they often do.

Prediction: Rockets in 6.