NCAA March Madness: NBA Draft expert determines bracket busters

Upsets define March Madness. The chaotic, single elimination format helps make college basketball’s playoff format the most electric in all of sports. All of our brackets will inevitably shatter at the hands of a feisty mid-major nobody expected to knock off college basketball giants, but that’s why the tournament is wonderful.

While nobody can fully predict who will win in March, we can hypothesize about the most likely sleeper teams to make an unexpected deep tournament run. These could be the teams to outplay their expectations and help you win your bracket pool. Let’s break down five teams that could bust your brackets and upset high seeds. We’ll list each team’s projected seed, according to ESPN bracketology.

Gonzaga (7 seed)

Categorizing Gonzaga as a “bracket buster” feels strange. The Zags are one of this era's defining college basketball programs, having reached an incredible nine straight Sweet 16 trips. However, this is a relative down year for Gonzaga, as its 25 wins this season are its fewest since 2008. The last time the Bulldogs placed below a five-seed was in 2016.

Yet Gonzaga, by most metrics, ranks as one of the best teams in all of college basketball. Kenpom and Bart Torvik both grade the Zags as a top 10 team. Their offense is phenomenal, led by an elite point guard initiator in Ryan Nembhard and a collection of valuable big men in Graham Ike, Ben Gregg and Braden Huff

Despite their down year, tournament experience will help Gonzaga bust brackets. Source: Imagn

Gonzaga has one notable Achilles heel — it can’t win close games. According to Bart Torvik, the Zags have incredibly lost all seven of their close games this season. That could spark some concern for their tournament hopes in an environment where games regularly go down to the wire. Optimists could swing this around, though, hoping Gonzaga’s talent and better late-game fortunes lead to wins at the most important moments.

Missouri (7 seed)

It’s impossible to avoid the constant chatter around this historic SEC season. ESPN Bracketology currently projects 13 Southeast teams to make the Big Dance, which includes half of the top eight overall seeds. We shouldn’t forget about the Missouri Tigers though, who bounced back this season after going winless in SEC play a year ago.

Both Kenpom and Bart Torvik rank Missouri as a top-20 team in the nation. The Tigers lean on their dominant top-five offense, fueled by draining threes and stacking free-throws. Missouri ranks second in the nation in free-throw rate (47.1) and 30th in 3-point percentage (37.2%), breaking down defenses with a balanced attack.

Caleb Grill is arguably the best shooter in the conference and Anthony Robinson draws fouls like a madman. Missouri’s collection of upperclassmen, led by Mark Mitchell, Tamar Bates and Tony Perkins, help stabilize their offense. The Tigers can be vulnerable on defense, especially against high-powered, high-paced offenses, but elite offense often predicts success in March and Missouri has that.

Drake (11 seed)

After making the tournament in three of the last four years, Drake lost their head coach and top player to West Virginia this offseason. Most programs would crumble in this situation, but the Bulldogs mustered an all-time season. New head coach Ben McCollum led Drake to a program-record 30 wins and a Missouri Valley title.

The Bulldogs run through point guard Bennett Stirtz, who followed his coach to Drake from Division II Northwest Missouri State. He’s been one of the best players in the country, playing nearly all of his team’s minutes while spamming pick-and-rolls throughout games. Drake slows games down and wins with its half-court offense, a style that often translates to March.

Drake overwhelms opponents with their top 50 defense, ranking 10th in the country (22.1%) in opposing turnover rate. Taller teams can overwhelm Drake — their tallest big man (Cam Manyawu) is 6’9 — but they have an elite coach, scheme and an NBA talent at guard. That’s a formula for success in March.

UC San Diego (12 seed)

In just their fifth season at the Division 1 level and their first of postseason eligibility, the Tritons broke out as one of the best mid major teams in the nation. They won 28 games and went 2-1 in their Quadrant 1 games, helping them rank as a top 50 team according to Bart Torvik and a top 40 team according to Kenpom.

The Tritons have the tools can they cause an upset? Source: Imagn

The Tritons rank ninth in the country in 3-point rate (49.4) and convert 36.7% of those shots. Their two high-level shooters, Hayden Gray and Tyler McGhie, help space the floor for the rest of the offense. That offense runs through senior forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, one of the country’s most underrated and overwhelming driving creators.

UC San Diego’s most auspicious signal for tournament success is their turnover efficiency. The Tritons rarely cough the ball up, ranking sixth in the nation in turnover rate (13.4%) and they force the second most giveaways (23.7%) of any team. More talented, established teams shouldn’t underestimate UC San Diego, which has the components of a low-seed capable of making a deep run.

Yale (13 seed)

Yale won a tournament game last year, upsetting Auburn in round one as a 13 seed. We shouldn’t discount Yale’s ability to repeat that outcome as a low seed winner given their talent and tournament experience. Both Bart Torvik and Kenpom view the Bulldogs as a top-80 team, placing ahead of many high-major conference squads.

They’ll rely on senior guard John Poulakidas on the offensive end, who dropped an efficient 28 points in last season’s tournament win over Auburn. He’s a nuclear shooter, shooting above 39% from deep for his third straight college season. Poulakidas returns with upperclassmen Nick Townsend and Bez Mbeng, granting Yale the continuity that often pays dividends in March.

Yale ranks in the top 25 in offensive turnover rate (14.7%) and makes 38.2% of their 3-point attempts. Similar to some other inclusions on this list, that’s a formula for upset wins in March against bigger, more athletic and talented basketball teams.