History suggests Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will trump Nikola Jokic for MVP award

This year's NBA MVP race is widely seen as a contest between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the OKC Thunder and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets. While there's no defined set of criteria for the award and it ultimately comes down to the choices of the voting panel, both players have compelling cases.

One argument for MVP often favors the top player on the best team, a narrative that fits Gilgeous-Alexander. However, Jokic — who's averaging a triple-double and arguably having his best individual season yet despite being a three-time MVP winner — has also built a strong argument.

Stat Mamba on X (formerly Twitter) pointed out that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA in points per game for a team that has won at least 65 games in a season. That follows the OKC Thunder's 136-120 victory over the LA Lakers on Tuesday, which improved their record to 65-14.

The stat showed that Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32.7 points per game topped the list, with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1971 (31.7 ppg), James Harden in 2018 (30.4 ppg), Michael Jordan in 1996 (30.4 ppg) and Steph Curry in 2016 and Jordan in 1992 (both at 30.1 ppg).

All the players trailing Gilgeous-Alexander in that list went on to win MVP in those seasons.

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ESPN’s MVP straw poll predicts Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will edge out Nikola Jokic for first MVP

ESPN conducts an MVP straw poll that simulates the NBA’s voting process.

In the latest straw poll, released earlier this month, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander received 77 first-place votes and 23 second-place votes, earning a total of 931 points. Nikola Jokic received all the first- and second-place votes Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t get and accumulated 769 points for second place.

Giannis Antetokounmpo came in third with 53 third-place votes, 37 fourth-place votes and five fifth-place votes for 381 points, followed by Jayson Tatum in fourth with 41 third-place votes, 51 fourth-place votes and five fifth-place votes for 363 points.

The MVP race is heavily influenced by popularity, with voters factoring in both statistics and the narrative around each player’s performance. However, there are no rigid criteria for choosing the winner, as various elements like individual stats, the player’s role on the best team and more all come into play.