How can Memphis Grizzlies qualify for Emirates NBA Cup knockouts? All permutations and combinations explored

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 14 of their first 21 games. They're third in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder.

However, they haven't found the same success in the NBA Emirates Cup. Taylor Jenkins' team lost two of their first three games in the in-season tournament.

That puts them in a tough spot as they head to their matchup with the Dallas Mavericks for Tuesday's final fixture of the group stage. They're fourth in Group C, trailing the Golden State Warriors, Mavericks and Denver Nuggets. However, they can still move on to the knockout stage.

NBA Cup tiebreaker rules

1. Point differential in group play
2. Most points scored in group play
3. The 2023-24 regular season record will be the decider if the teams remain tied.

In the group stage, the Grizzlies have a -6.0 point differential after scoring 348 points and allowing 354. They're also 11th in the race for the wild card spot in the Western Conference.

Memphis needs some help to move on in the NBA Emirates Cup

The Grizzlies need a strong victory over the Mavericks and must rely on other teams losing in the final games to secure a wild card spot. Their path forward requires several outcomes: the Oklahoma City Thunder losing to the Utah Jazz, the Los Angeles Clippers defeating the Portland Trail Blazers and the Golden State Warriors beating the Denver Nuggets.

If these scenarios unfold, the Grizzlies would win the tiebreaker over second-place teams in West Groups A and B.

The other scenario is the same, but with the Nuggets beating the Warriors instead. Should that happen, the Grizzlies would have to beat the Mavericks by at least 24 points in regulation to win the tiebreaker over them and the Nuggets.

Taylor Jenkins' team will have their work cut out for them in this game. The Mavericks are 4.5-point home favorites, and Luka Doncic is back after missing five games with an injury.

Nevertheless, even if they don't advance in the tournament, these games still count for their regular-season record, so they will have to compete at the highest level regardless of the context.