The NBA is on pace to log its best offensive season of all time, with the Offensive Rating this season being 113 points per 100 possessions. This is the highest since the 1973-74 season, which is as far as the data can go.
The league's offensive rating has steadily increased since 2015, and so have teams' field-goal and 3-point percentages. The league thrives primarily on offense today, and the officiating and the philosophy of basketball are the drivers of this change.
Somewhere in the early 2010s, teams had the realization that a spot-up 3-point shooter, shooting at around 40% from 3-point range, can have a significantly higher impact if his field-goal attempts go up.
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Three-pointers were usually a Hail Mary or a safety net before the 3-point revolution. Since then, instead of sitting in the corner and waiting for a double-team down low, more and more teams started running plays specificifically designed to get shooters open. The Golden State Warriors' entire offense was based on this philosophy.
Following the Dubs' title in 2015, the league has seen a significant uptake in 3-point attemtps. However, teams are shooting about the same as they were when they took 10 less attempts.
This season, the NBA is generating 36.6 points per game from 3-point range, which is the third-highest, behind the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. It is more than likely that come April, we will see the league surpass its peak, 12.7, and generate an unprecendented 40 points per game through 3-pointers.
Another factor that might contribute to the jump in offensive efficiency has to do with the NBA doing away with the transition take-foul. The score frequency, points per possession and points generated have all seen an increase, however insignificant.
What can the future look like for the NBA?
Following purely statistical trends, teams around the league are likely to make more and more 3-point attempts in the coming years. However, the NBA's newfound penchant for 3-pointers has less to do with increasing offensive efficiency and more to do with "doing what works."
When Golden State was all the talk of the town, everyone wanted a Stephen Curry: a high-volume, high-efficiency 3-point shooter who can score in just about any way. The Warriors' motion offense and switching defense gave teams around the league a blueprint.
The Warriors' lineup was loaded with wing players, versatile defenders and above-average playmakers.
Today, any formidable team is stacking up on wing players. The LA Clippers have two of the best two-way players of the last decade. The Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo can essentially guard one through five. And Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown are wings who form the backbone of a contending Boston Celtics team.
It will hardly be a surprise that the best players moving forward will have a range of skills that allow them to play at and guard multiple positions, score in a variety of ways while rebounding and passing at above-average levels.
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