NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: OKC’s Chet Holmgren, Victor Wembanyama odds and props explored

The NBA Rookie of the Year race might be the biggest discussion of all of this season's awards. Multiple first-year prospects have been key pieces for their teams.

One of the main frontrunners for the award is San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama. There was a massive amount of hype around him before and after being drafted No. 1 this summer, and he has delivered thus far. Wembanyama is averaging 19.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists.

Other notable names in the Rookie of the Year race include OKC Thunder center Chet Holmgren and Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr.

As the regular season rages on, here is a current look at the betting odds for the award.

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NBA Rookie of the Year Odds (via SportsBettingDime)

#5, Dereck Lively Jr. (+25,000)

Rounding out the top five is the 12th overall pick from Duke, Dereck Lively Jr., a five-star recruit and top overall prospect in the 2022 class, who has the talent to deliver each game. He is a long shot at the moment.

Playing alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, Lively has thrived as a roll man for the Mavericks. He is getting it done on both ends of the floor, averaging 8.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg and 1.4 blocks per game.

#4, Scoot Henderson (+25,000)

Next up is another long shot, Portland Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson. After a slow start and injury woes, the No. 3 pick is flashing his athleticism and settling into a comfortable bench role.

He is averaging 12.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg and 4.7 apg, good enough to place him at No. 4 in the rookie rankings. While Henderson isn’t putting up eye-popping numbers, he has still been one of the more productive rookies this season.

#3, Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+4,000)

Despite being an older prospect and being taken outside of the lottery, Jaime Jaquez Jr. finds himself in the conversation for NBA Rookie of the Year.

Due to injuries on the Miami Heat, Jaquez has been a constant in the rotation. He’s made the most of this opportunity, averaging 14.0 ppg and 3.9 rpg. It is mainly a two-player race for this award, but Jaquez has played himself into being a close third in the debate.

#2, Victor Wembanyama (+100)

Coming in at No. 2 is the player many thought would run away with this award, Victor Wembanyama. Along with averaging a double-double, the San Antonio Spurs big man is leading the league in blocks at 3.5 per game.

Over the past two months, Wembanyama has built up a long highlight reel of eye-popping plays. He is also fresh off posting his first career triple-double against the Detroit Pistons: 16 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists.

With +115 odds to be named NBA Rookie of the Year, it’s clear there is a neck-and-neck battle.

#1, Chet Holmgren (-150)

The current betting favorite for NBA Rookie of the Year is OKC Thunder center Chet Holmgren. He is beating out Wembanyama with -170 odds to secure the hardware at season’s end.

Similar to Wemby, Holmgren has been a two-way force. His averages sit at 17.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg and 2.5 bpg.

The key element that separates Holmgren and Wembanyama is team success. OKC (29-12) is in second place in the Western Conference, while the Spurs (8-34) have one of the league’s worst records. If Holmgren can continue to be a key contributor to a top team, it could result in him being named ROY.

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NBA Rookie of the Year odds trends

Looking at the trends, it has primarily been a two-player race between Holmgren and Wembanyama. Even so, there have been some major risers and fallers since the season first began.

Early on in the year, Derrick Lively and Scoot Henderson were among the favorites. However, due to various reasons, they have seen a steep decline in recent weeks. Scoot Henderson is still a distant favorite, with Brandon Miller falling out of the top five. Another rookie who had a major drop-off is Warriors Brandin Podziemski.

As for risers, there is only one. That's Jaime Jaquez Jr. following an impressive stretch of performances over the past few months. Dating to November, he’s been sitting in third place.

Jaquez found a groove in November but hit his stride in December. In 13 games that month, he averaged 16.1 ppg on just under 50% shooting. His most notable performance came on Christmas Day when he erupted for 31 points and 10 rebounds in a win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

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Recent NBA Rookie of the Year winners

Diving into the history of the award, it tends to favor players who were picked near the top of their draft. This is good news for guys like Wembanyama and Holmgren, but could hurt the case of Jaquez.

Over the past decade, only two Rookie of the Year winners were selected out of the top five. Michael Carter-Williams won in 2014, and he was picked at No. 11. The other instance was Malcolm Brogdon, who was drafted in the second round.

The award also tends to favor top picks, as four of the last 10 winners were drafted first. Here is a full breakdown of recent NBA Rookie of the Year winners.

Year	Player	Team	Pick No.
2013-14	Michael Carter-Williams	Philadelphia 76ers	11
2014-15	Andrew Wiggins	Minnesota Timberwolves	1
2015-16	Karl-Anthony Towns	Minnesota Timberwolves	1
2016-17	Malcolm Brogdon	Indiana Pacers	36
2017-18	Ben Simmons	Philadelphia 76ers	1
2018-19	Luka Doncic	Dallas Mavericks	3
2019-20	Ja Morant	Memphis Grizzlies	2
2020-21	Lamelo Ball	Charlotte Hornets	3
2021-22	Scottie Barnes	Toronto Raptors	4
2022-23	Paolo Banchero	Orlando Magic	1