OKC Thunder 2025 NBA Playoffs Picture: Dissecting potential first-round matchups, key stats and more

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been at the top of the Western Conference the entire season and will secure the top seed by more than 10 games. Oklahoma City is chasing history, trying to set a new record for wins in a single season, needing just one more win to surpass the 1995-96 Seattle Supersonics. However, the team has their eyes set on a championship run, winning their first title in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder have been a dominant team on both ends of the floor, but Mark Daignault's team has hung its hat on the defensive end. The OKC Thunder have led the league in almost every single defensive statistic since the season tipped off in October. Their offense also ranks within the top five in the league as well, making the Thunder arguably the most well-rounded teams in the NBA.

Oklahoma City has already secured the top seed in the Western Conference, having clinched the conference back on March 20. The Thunder have a 14.5-game lead over the Houston Rockets with six games left in their season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. have had multiple stretches of sustained success, currently riding their largest winning streak of the season at 11 games.

Defining Statistic: Point differential

The OKC Thunder have been one of the top-ranked teams in the league on both ends of the floor and are one of only two teams ranked within the top five of both offense and defense, joined by the defending champion Boston Celtics. But the number that sets Oklahoma City apart is its point differential.

The Thunder enjoy a +13.3 point margin per game, superior to three points ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers, second in the league. The differential this season is one of the largest in history, on par with Lew Alcindor's Milwaukee Bucks and Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls. Both teams went on to win the title, clearly a good sign for a championship-hungry Thunder team.

There is reason for Oklahoma City to be concerned when thinking back historically. If the Thunder sweep all of their last games of this year, they will have 70 wins, tying them with the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls and 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, both of whom won 72 and 73 games, respectively.

But those Warriors lost the Finals even if they had their record-breaking mark and double-digit point lead.

Playoff X-Factor: Jalen Williams

Against Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in their second-round playoff series, the Thunder offense and specifically their lack of a secondary scoring threat to complement Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was exposed. Oklahoma City has tried to plug that issue, but first-time All-Star Jalen Williams' breakout might be the solution they need.

Head coach Mark Daignault has been shuffling his rotation all season, and one of his main goals was to find a team that could maintain a lead or keep Oklahoma City competitive without Gilgeous-Alexander. He appears to have solved that problem, putting Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren on the court at the same time in lineups that are a plus on the season in their minutes played.

Jalen Williams has taken a step forward as a scorer and ball handler in his third season in the NBA. His confidence has grown as he has gotten more comfortable with the ball in his hands and when he is alongside Holmgren, Okahoma City has at least two capable playmakers who can hold down the fort without Gilgeous-Alexander.

Potential first-round matchups for the Oklahoma City Thunder

As the number one seed in the Western Conference, Oklahoma City could find itself matched up with any Western Conference play-in team. While there are fewer than eight games left in the regular season, there are a host of teams that can slide into the Western Conference play-in tournament.

The current Western Conference play-in teams are, in order of seeding, the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings. However, a winning or losing streak by any of these teams could shake things up; two and a half games is all that separates the eighth and third seed in the standings.

As is stands right now, Oklahoma City would be considered heavy favorites in any of their first round series, but one presents a much greater threat than the others; the Minnesota Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards and Co. are one of the dark horse teams that could make a Miami Heat-esque run in the postseason.

The Timberwolves have split the season series with Oklahoma City with three of their four games having been decided by less than 10 points. The Timberwolves have shown the ability to play with the best of the NBA when they're healthy, and Edwards showed the league something last season, beating the Denver Nuggets en route to the Western Conference Finals.