Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets: Prediction and Betting Tips | March 5, 2024

The Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets clash rounds off Tuesday's epic nine-game slate. The 2023 conference semis opponents have had polar opposite seasons this year.

Denver has played like a defending champion, boasting a 42-19 record, tied for the second-best in the West. Meanwhile, Phoenix has had a topsy-turvy year. It's sixth in the conference with a 35-26 record, a game above the seventh seed.

As for their head-to-heads, the Nuggets are up 1-0 after registering a 119-111 win on Dec. 1. Nikola Jokic led Denver with a 21-point, 16-assist double-double, while the other starters also scored 15 or more, with Jamal Murray out.

Meanwhile, Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic had 30-point outings for the shorthanded Suns without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Durant shot only eight of 25 but made 11 trips to the free throw line. Phoenix's supporting cast couldn't match up to Denver's, which was decisive.

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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets preview, betting tips, odds and prediction

TNT will nationally televise the Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets game. Local TV operators Arizona's Family 3 TV/ Arizona's Family Sports and Altitude will also cover the contest. Fans abroad can catch live-action online via NBA League Pass with a subscription.

Moneyline: Suns +330, Nuggets -425

Spread: Suns +9 (-108), Nuggets -9 (-112)

Total (o/u): Suns o223.5 (-110), Nuggets u223.5 (-110)

Editor's note: The odds listed were as per available information at the time of writing.

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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets: Preview

Just as it seemed like the Phoenix Suns had started to figure things out, they are in the middle of another slump, with four losses in their past six games. The Suns' late-game woes and careless offense have been the prominent reason behind their struggles.

Phoenix is committing 16.0 turnovers a game in its past six outings. It boasts a dismal 109.4 offensive rating in the fourth quarter, 18th in the NBA. The offense is again relying heavily on isolation. The Suns have become simpler to guard, especially with their role players not as efficient as their stars in creating scoring opportunities.

The Suns' 118-110 loss against the OKC Thunder was a prime example. OKC aggressively sent double teams at Kevin Durant, which he couldn't dodge. Phoenix had 22 turnovers, leading to 18 fastbreak points for the Thunder. Devin Booker (ankle) wasn't available that game. He won't be available on Tuesday, either.

The Suns will need to do a better job of moving around Durant, cutting and getting open, as he will likely face aggressive defensive schemes with the ball in his hands. Jusuf Nurkic could be a crucial weapon to limit Nikola Jokic defensively, but he's questionable with a calf ailment.

Meanwhile, Josh Okogie (abdomen) and Nassir Little (knee) will join Booker on the sidelines.

On the other hand, the Denver Nuggets are on a roll with six consecutive wins, entering the game against the Suns. They are outscoring their opponents with a +14.7-point differential, while top two offense and top six defense, with a +14.6 net rating.

Denver can't seem to put a foot wrong in the clutch. Nikola Jokic's chemistry with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon in late-game situations is only growing, seemingly making the Nuggets the most unplayable team.

The Nuggets have only listed Vlatko Cancar (knee) on their injury report. He is ruled out.

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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets: Starting Lineups

Suns starting lineup

PG - Bradley Beal, SG - Grayson Allen, SF - Royce O'Neale, PF - Kevin Durant, C - Jusuf Nurkic

Nuggets starting lineup

PG - Jamal Murray, SG - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SF - Michael Porter Jr., PF - Aaron Gordon, C - Nikola Jokic

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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets: Betting Tips

Kevin Durant is favored to score over 27.5 points. He's gone over his points total twice in his last five games. KD is averaging 25.5 points in his past 10 outings. With Devin Booker out, the Suns will need Durant to score big.

Nikola Jokic is favored to score under 26.5 points. The Serb has 24.0 ppg in his past 10 games, but he's hit the over on his total three times in his last five outings. Jokic could see an aggressive coverage from Jusuf Nurkic, which will keep his points total low.

Jokic is also favored to grab under 12.5 rebounds. He's gone under on his rebound total in the past two games and is averaging 12.3 boards in his last 10 appearances.

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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets: Prediction

The Denver Nuggets are the oddsmakers' favorites, with a -440 money line to the Phoenix Suns' +440. However, Phoenix is favored to cover the +7.5 spread.

Despite their dominant six-game winning stretch, the Nuggets have started slow in some games. The trend could continue against the Suns, who can get hot for a brief stretch with their shooters.

However, the Nuggets will likely close the game in the fourth, owing to their clinical execution down the stretch amid their run. The Suns are probably one of the weakest fourth-quarter teams they will face in this stretch. Without Devin Booker, the Nuggets' task only becomes easier in the clutch.