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As the NCAA tournament begins, many teams have ambitions to be sleepers or Cinderella teams that go on a deep run. Only a few teams will pull off upsets, so they are worth watching out for during the tournament.
In the context of the NCAA tournament, a sleeper team is a team that over-achieves and reaches a position that is beyond where their seeding suggests. A sleeper team that is worth watching can significantly over-achieve and go much further than their seeding.
For a sleeper team to be successful, they need a combination of factors to work out in their favor. Sleepers need a unique aspect that gives them a competitive advantage, a favorable draw, trends working in their favor, and efficiency.
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A good sleeper team will have one of the four, and the best sleeper teams will have all four of them. A team that can put everything together at the right time is a significant threat in the NCAA tournament.
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That said, let's take a look at five such teams.
#5 Vermont - NCAA Tournament: No. 13 in West Bracket
The Vermont Catamounts are the thirteenth seed in the West bracket for the NCAA tournament, but they have some qualities that give them a chance at upsets. Vermont's combination of veteran leadership and offensive efficiency gives them a chance against most teams, but they are also benefitting from their potential matchups.
Vermont is seeing popularity in many brackets as they draw a first-round game against an Arkansas team that matchups up poorly with them. Vermont can win in the paint and on the perimeter, both offensively and defensively, which is part of the recipe for winning games in the tournament.
Beyond the first-round, Vermont matches up favorably against either UCONN or New Mexico State in the round of 32. However, if they can reach the Sweet Sixteen, a likely matchup against the Gonzaga Bulldogs presents problems.
For a seeded as low as Vermont, national championship ambitions are a bit too lofty, but a run into the third round of the NCAA tournament is possible. A significant potential sleeper team could hardly ask for much more.
#4 Michigan - NCAA Tournament: No. 11 in South Bracket
The Michigan Wolverines have had a tumultuous season that many thought ended with a loss to Indiana in the Big 10 championship game. The NCAA tournament selection committee then made the decision to add Michigan to the tournament field and give them one of the sixty-four spots over Indiana.
While many question Michigan's place in the tournament, the Wolverines' focus is on playing spoiler once the tournament starts. As a sleeper team, Michigan is proving to be a popular choice to make a deep run in the tournament for valid and invalid reasons.
Much like Vermont, Michigan is proving popular in betting circles due to the team's popularity and the program's pedigree. Juwan Howard is looking to lead Michigan deep into the tournament, despite being the eleventh seed.
Michigan is starting the NCAA tournament against a Colorado State team that has to travel to Indianapolis for the first game of the entire tournament. Scheduling is working in Michigan's favor here as they will also likely face a Tennessee team that will have less rest and need much more to go right for them.
#3 Loyola Chicago - NCAA Tournament: No. 10 in South
Loyola Chicago and their unofficial mascot, Sister Jean, are ready to make noise again in March. This time around, they will need new head coach Drew Valentine to design an effective game plan that will lead the Ramblin Ramblers to another Final Four appearance.
Drew Valentine's Loyola Chicago team is similar to their past teams, as their identity focuses on shooting well and playing defense, which they still do at an elite level. They are likely receiving a low seed because of their young head coach since they are a much stronger team than the other tenth seeds.
A tenth seed would imply that the team is roughly the fortieth-best team in the tournament, but Loyola Chicago is much better than the fortieth-best, and they will look to prove it against Ohio State. A win over Ohio State would set up a defensive showdown against the Villanova Wildcats, which will be must-see TV.
#2 Texas - NCAA Tournament: No. 6 in East Bracket
Chris Beard once led Texas Tech to a Final Four and a national championship game appearance and now looks to lead the University of Texas to the same place. The identity of this Texas team is similar to that of his previous team, as Texas is efficient on both ends of the floor.
Efficiency is the strength of this team, but consistency is not, so Texas finds itself as a sixth seed rather than a higher seed like the other teams with similar skills. Texas has the efficiency and trends of an elite team, which is why they will be a sleeper in the NCAA tournament.
The Baylor Bears and UCLA Bruins are two teams with similar efficiency that the Longhorns could face before a potential Final Four appearance. Before there is any chance at those teams, the Longhorns will need to beat Virginia Tech, who just beat Duke for the ACC championship, so the sleepers will need to earn their place.
#1 Iowa - NCAA Tournament: No. 5 in Midwest Bracket
The Iowa Hawkeyes are the fifth seed in the Midwest bracket, but they are one of the hottest teams in the country, due in part to a fantastic win in the Big 10 tournament. Given that the Big 10 has the most teams in the NCAA tournament, the best tournament team in the conference is worth watching.
Under the leadership of a potential top pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Hawkeyes have the firepower and star power to make a run at a national championship. Keegan Murray and the shooters around him look to be the first sleepers with a chance to eliminate one of the national championship favorites.
Iowa and Vermont are the two sleepers in the top half of their brackets, which means they will have to beat the number one seed in their brackets to reach the Elite Eight. If the Iowa Hawkeyes reach and get past the Kansas Jayhawks, the sleepers will become one of the favorites to win the NCAA tournament.
The Iowa Hawkeyes will either succeed or fail due to the success of Keegan Murray, and Keegan Murray will try to prove why he is amongst the best players in college basketball. One man will not win a national championship, but in clutch moments, having a star that can take over the game is critical to winning it all.
