VJ Edgecombe scouting report: From lows to highs, will drafting the Baylor freshman top-5 be worth it? 

Anchoring bias, or our tendency as humans to favor the first piece of information we receive, has power over our thinking. This is true for prospect analysis; first impressions can be hard to shake. The case of a prospect like Baylor freshman guard VJ Edgecombe, who struggled immensely earlier in the season, can help us remember to weigh all data points holistically.

Many prospects start their seasons strong against weaker competition and peter off against better opponents. Edgecombe has done the opposite, facing his toughest battles early in the season. That experience has helped him blossom in conference play, where he’s playing some of the best basketball of his career.

Edgecombe’s recent production, averaging 18.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game against conference opponents, reminds us of the high-level prospect he is. Among high major freshmen in conference play, only Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey have outscored Edgecombe. That production combined with Edgecombe’s special athleticism make him a prospect worthy of top-five discussion, even in a draft as strong as 2025.

VJ Edgecombe's elite vertical makes him a special talent on defense

Those athletic tools are most obvious on the defensive end, where Edgecombe delivers some of the brightest moments of any prospect in this draft. Edgecombe’s turnover generation drives his defensive value, evidenced by his impressive 3.3% block rate and 4.2% steal rate He’s one of eight high major college players this season 6’5 or shorter with a block rate above 3% and one of seven with a block rate above 3% and a steal rate above 4%.

Edgecombe’s rare blend of speed, vertical explosion and instincts help him make indescribable defensive plays. His flashes of weak side rim protection, point-of-attack defense and pass lane jumping all remind us of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.

Despite his high highs on defense, Edgecombe’s defensive impact comes via occasional flashes rather than consistent, play-to-play impact. Take the first clip in the video above as an example. Edgecombe rises up for an emphatic block, but notice his man in the corner (Utah #2) slip behind him. If the driver noticed this, he could have passed to the cutter for a layup as Edgecombe stared at the ball.

These deficiencies are common for college freshmen, especially ones as physically gifted as Edgecombe. For most of his basketball life, Edgecombe’s athletic advantages over his opponents made him a defensive stalwart. That won’t be the case against NBA (and some college) athletes, but many young players improve as off-ball defenders as they mature and gain more playing experience.

VJ Edgecombe is still uncomfortable using his physical skillset on offense

His overwhelming explosion occasionally pops on offense, but Edgecombe is still learning to harness his tools to impact winning on that end of the floor. To this point in the season, he’s posted a pedestrian 55.6% true shooting while shooting under 50% (48.5%) of his 2-pointers despite his massive physical advantages.

Ultimately, Edgecombe’s ability to turn his athletic gifts into genuine creation reps could help determine his offensive ceiling. Edgecombe’s comfort zone on offense sits off of the ball — shooting off the catch, cutting, attacking closeouts and scoring in transition. According to Synergy, 46.4% of Edgecombe’s offense comes via transition or spot-up chances.

When Edgecombe faces primary attention, his playmaking and decision-making struggle to hold up. Without a controlled, creative handle or a pull-up shooting threat, defenses can back off of Edgecombe and close off passing windows. He’ll often default to battering defenses with his athletic tools, oftentimes jumping from the middle of the paint or further out, instead of probing and reacting to what defenses offer him.

He has some genuine passing vision and decision-making chops, mostly attacking in advantage situations. Edgecombe’s ability to pressure the rim opens up massive passing windows and he flashes some high-level passes, especially laying the ball down for layups and dunks. That passing skill synergizes with Edgecombe’s general positive play off of the ball on offense.

Edgecombe reminds us to mostly ignore 3-point percentage as a shooting indicator, especially for segments of single seasons. Before Big 12 play began, Edgecombe made a frigid 26.3% of his 8.8 3-point attempts per 100 possessions, leading many to question his shooting upside. Nearly two months and nine conference games later, Edgecombe’s season-long 3-point efficiency skyrocketed up to 38.4% on nine 3-point attempts per 100 possessions.

Shooting volume is a powerful indicator for shooting growth, as most of the best shooters are confident, even playing through misses and cold stretches, which Edgecombe did. We could have leaned on his strong pre-NCAA shooting sample — he converted 39.1% of 274 threes across his high school and FIBA games since 2022.

Turning to the tape reflects a genuine off-ball shooting threat. He’s not a pull-up shooter yet (25%, 4-16 on off dribble threes this season) but Edgecombe quickly organizes his feet off the catch. His willingness to run off of movement and shoot confidently over contests bodes well for his NBA shooting projection. Those catch-and-shoot numbers are sparkling — Edgecombe’s made 41.1% (30-73) of his catch-and-shoot triples this season.

Even when considering Edgecombe’s notable creation limitations, nuclear athletes with his shooting competency provide a measurable floor. He’s not at the same level of creator as Anthony Edwards or Victor Oladipo at the same stage but the shooting is notably better. Edgecombe’s shooting threat off the ball will open easy chances for him to drive off of the catch.

His lack of elite feel for the game and creative scoring might limit Edgecombe’s upside as a creator compared to some of the draft’s top perimeter prospects. Edgecombe’s ceiling may sit in the realm of players like Jalen Suggs or Alex Caruso as high-level defensive players with complementary offensive skills.

That outcome would be worth a top-five pick in the majority of drafts. If Edgecombe can become a threatening off-dribble shotmaker or an improved intermediate scorer, he could reach an even loftier ceiling. Players with his baseline of athleticism and shooting tend to stick in the NBA, though, even if they can’t reach a star ceiling.