What makes Nikola Topic the top point-guard from the 2024 NBA Draft ? 

The NBA meta constantly shifts as priorities for roster building and tactics evolve. Among this turbulence, the value of a true primary initiator guard won’t ever dissipate. Great teams need players who can create consistent advantages and bend the defense into rotation and capitalize with scoring or playmaking. For this role, Nikola Topic may be the best option in the 2024 NBA Draft.

Over his 13 Adriatic League games with Mega Bemax before moving up to the Euroleague (and sustaining injuries), Topic averaged a strong 18.6 points and 6.9 assists per game on an elite 62.9% true shooting percentage. Topic acted as the offensive centerpiece as an 18-year-old — he won’t turn 19 until August — on a team in a league filled with adults. That’s as impressive as it gets production-wise before the NBA.

Topic wins with elite driving, as his burst and first step help him burn defenses to the rim at will. He lives in the paint, averaging a comical 7.1 layup attempts per game in the Adriatic League. Generating paint touches will always be an immensely valuable skill for guards, as layups and free throws are the best shots in basketball and defenses collapse around the paint.

When he maneuvers to the rim, Topic has no problems finishing among the trees, converting a remarkable 67.8% of his half-court layups in the Adriatic. That’s a stellar figure. For context, that’s more efficient than the draft year layup numbers for Ja Morant (51.3%), Luka Doncic (62.1%), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (54.7%), and Steph Curry (61.2%), to name a few.

Nikola Topic scouting report: High offensive upside but limited defensive presence

Despite his elite horizontal explosion, Topic is a poor vertical athlete, recording zero dunks all season. That’s rare for a player who lives at the rim like he does, especially for a 6’5 guard. Some of Topic’s finishing goodness may not translate immediately against better athletes. That’s cause for some concern, though I’d bet on his elite touch, body control and balance to maintain his finishing up to the NBA level.

Topic is a strong passer, operating the pick-and-roll at an NBA level. His passing numbers are strong — a massive 34.4% assist rate, a 2.21 assist-to-turnover ratio with 60.6% of his assists leading to two-pointers, indicative of strong interior passing. Topic is best at beating hedges and traps out of the pick and roll, skipping to the corner, or passing over the top to the roller. He sprays out passes off of his own gravity. Defenders must send help on Topic’s drives, opening up easy passing windows.

There are limits to Topic’s passing capabilities; he’s a high-volume passer but his vision isn’t exceptional. Topic will miss higher-level reads in tighter NBA-level windows, especially against pressure. Given his driving excellence, Topic doesn’t need elite passing vision and creativity to distribute the ball effectively. I don’t think he will reach the NBA’s elite passing group, which limits the ceiling.

Scoring outside of the paint, specifically from three, will be the swing skill for Topic’s offense. He shot just 30.6% from deep across all games this season on 5.3 attempts per 40 minutes. Defenses too easily sag off of Topic, baiting him into jumpers. To excel as a primary initiator in the NBA, Topic must draw more attention.

Nikola Topic's offensive upside is why we think he is the best point-guard in the 2024 NBA draft.

His shooting indicators are strong outside of the poor percentages. We already discussed his elite touch and Topic shoots 87.8% from the line, a strong predictor of shooting development. Like many young guards, Topic shoots more efficiently on off-the-dribble threes (33.3%) than catch and shoots (27.3%).

Projecting Topic into an on-ball role will make the pull-up three a paramount shot for punishing soft defenses. If Topic can’t improve as a catch and shooter, he’ll struggle to add value playing next to other ball-dominant stars. He’ll also need to expand his box of mid-range counters when defenses overplay the rim against Topic.

Whether or not Topic can hold up defensively against NBA offenses is the other looming question. Despite good height for the point guard position, Topic struggled mightily on the defensive end this year. Problems are expected for players as young as Topic, as bigger and stronger defenders blew by him on ball and walled him off on screens often.

Nikola often positioned himself well off the ball but rarely disrupted ballhandlers due to his lack of size and force. He must add strength and improve his agility to function as a viable NBA defender. Topic’s primary value comes on the offensive end and it’s common for young, high-usage initiators to struggle on defense early in their careers, especially with effort and focus. To reach his ceiling, Topic must progress on defense at least to the point where defenses can’t hunt him in the postseason.

Nikola Topic injury concerns: Why NBA teams need to be wary

His health will be another factor teams consider, as Topic suffered multiple right knee injuries within the last year. Topic returned to the court recently before re-injuring his knee and it didn’t look the same. The burst was nonexistent, as the once blistering Serbian now struggled to beat switches on an island and generate consistent rim pressure.

NBA teams must feel confident about Topic’s medical outlook to spend a top-three pick on him. If Topic’s long-term health is fine, he should be an attractive option for teams like Washington and San Antonio who still need a primary initiator point guard.

Nikola Topic seems misunderstood by my estimation; he’s not a typical academy-brained Euro guard with major athletic struggles. Topic will win with his elite burst and driving and build the rest of his game around that special trait. His profile isn’t without flaws, as teams need a plan to develop his shooting, intermediate scoring, and defensive profile.

Scouts shouldn’t overthink Topic, though. Elite drivers with good feel and production at a young age tend to be positive NBA players and Topic should be no different. He’s one of the few players in this class with a genuine star ceiling and that alone should land him in the top three to five picks in an otherwise starless draft.