Who is more likely to win NBA Finals Game 5? Odds and predictions explored for Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets will have an opportunity to win their first NBA title on their home floor during Monday's Game 5 against the Miami Heat in the finals. The Nuggets took a commanding 3-1 lead behind a solid team effort in Thursday's 108-95 win in Game 4 at Kaseya Center.

Aaron Gordon was the unlikely hero in that contest. The veteran forward totaled 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists, shooting 73.3%, including 3-of-4 from deep. Meanwhile, finals MVP favorite Nikola Jokic finished with 23 points, 14 rebounds and four assists, and Bruce Brown Jr. contributed 21 points on 72.7% shooting off the bench.

The Nuggets recorded one of their best shooting games of the playoffs, going 14-of-28 from deep in that game. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat struggled to get significant contributions from their role players again.

Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combined for two points on 1-of-10 shooting, while Caleb Martin had 11 points on 12 attempts. Jimmy Butler tallied 29 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, while Bam Adebayo had 20 points and 11 rebounds.

Miami committed 14 turnovers, conceding 17 points off of them. They shot only 8-of-25 from 3-point range, shooting 32% or worse for the second straight game.

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Denver Nuggets likely to beat Miami Heat in Game 5

The Miami Heat have been a resilient group all postseason, but they seem out of depth to make a comeback against the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 NBA Finals. Unlike the other favorites the Heat faced in the previous rounds, the Nuggets have used their strengths to their advantage and played disciplined basketball for the better part of the series.

The Heat don't have the roster to battle against the depth of the Nuggets. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have been as consistent as ever, whether with their own game or involving others.

The Nuggets just smoked the Heat in back-to-back road games, giving them the momentum they need to enter Game 5 at home with a closeout opportunity. They will be mindful that going to Miami for Game 6 can be tricky, despite their solid performances in Games 4 and 5 on the road.

The Denver Nuggets aren't among the teams to lose focus and confidence, so they will likely prevail in Tuesday's contest and become the 19th team in history to take home the NBA championship.

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Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 odds

The Denver Nuggets are favorites to win Game 5 against the Miami Heat as per the oddsmakers as well. The Nuggets are priced as a nine-point home favorite. The over/under total is 208.5 (-110/-110).

Odds as per Action Network.