Why drafting Bronny James in 2024 would be a huge mistake

Over 20 years ago, a 17-year-old LeBron James created history by becoming the youngest Sports Illustrated cover athlete. Nearly two decades later, his son Bronny James broke this record, but not because of his basketball prowess. Bronny's involvement with gaming dynasty FaZe Clan brought this opportunity about.

This same snapshot, however, shined a much brighter spotlight on the then-16-year-old's basketball abilities. Over the years, LeBron sought to downplay LeBron Jr.'s proclivity for the dance of hoops, because he knows about the downside of being constantly involved in news cycles at a young age.

However, once it became clear that Bronny would pursue the sport seriously, his father changed his tune. LeBron had a much more hands-on involvement in growing Bronny James' brand. We can effectively point to the start of his Lakers career as the starting point for when Bronny's basketball abilities were revealed to the world.

By the time Bronny began his sophomore season in high school, the only question that remained about his college career was where he'd end up committing.

Bronny ended up ranking among the most recruited HS players in his class. ESPN's Jonathan Givony, the preeminent NBA draft wizard on the landscape, projected him at No. 10 overall in next year's draft. That was, of course, many months before the news about Bronny's untimely cardiac arrest sparked serious concern from people across the NBA landscape.

Still, it seems everyone's set the stage for Bronny to make a grand entrance into the league. Much of that faith is, of course, based on LeBron's oft-stated desire to share the court with his son before retiring. But does it make sense for an NBA team to guarantee years of NBA money for Bronny James? Here are four reasons why that would be a mistake:

4 Reasons why Bronny James should not be drafted in 2024

#1 Bronny James was not a superstar in High School

The league isn't lacking for second, or even third-generation basketball stars today. The likes of Devin Booker, Andrew Wiggins, Jaren Jackson Jr., Cole Anthony, Gary Trent Jr., and Kenyon Martin Jr. (just to name a few) are all kids with NBA heritage.

Some amount of genetic talent and basketball IQ is sure to permeate through to the next generation for every NBA superstar, let alone a cerebral one like James.

But the difference between the aforementioned players' HS careers and that of Bronny James is practically night and day. Booker, for instance, averaged 32 points per game in his senior year. Cole Anthony averaged 16.9 ppg as a freshman. Bronny didn't sniff that mark through four years.

The likes of Gilbert Arenas would argue that his playmaking and his defense are Bronny James' main selling points. And the tape does show him to be quite the defender (at the HS level) thus far. But even career 3&D prototypes like Duncan Robinson who'd never be trusted with the rock at the NBA level showcased a bigger offensive repertoire at the high school level.

Even his McDonald's All-American selection guarantees nothing about his transition into an NBA player. According to ESPN, 42% of the All-Americans from 1993-2012 played fewer than 25 NBA games.

Simply put, Bronny did not flash enough of a scoring potential in high school to merit an NBA team's bet.

#2 Bronny James did not display the clutch gene in High School

Expanding on the same theme as above, a look at Bronny James' final two years of high school eligibility displays a lack of signature performances. Despite being clearly the most talented player for his team, Bronny came up short several times in both his junior and senior years of high school.

His junior year performance against Harvard-Westlake in the CIF Southern Section Open Division semifinals (a game where Sierra Canyon was a heavy favorite) yielded 4 points. The Trail Blazers also got blown out in the regional final of the Open Division, 83-59, as Bronny went scoreless with a sore hip.

Bronny's high school career watermark is a 25-point performance, a mark that thousands of players in his class have topped.

#3 Bronny James will be a 6th man at USC (at best)

With around 40 days left for USC's first game of the season against Kansas, Bronny James is still not in shape to practice. This was confirmed by school officials, who will understandably want to ease him into action.

But even if Bronny were to be fully fit, he was projected to be on the bench as a freshman. The team has two blue-blood prospects in Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis who will almost surely be starting every game. They want, of course, to keep their NCAA Tournament appearance streak alive.

Even if Bronny sees around 20 minutes per game, the college game will be much faster for him than HS play. Growing pains could take up the entire season, if not more, for the 18-year-old. Unless you show obvious talent as a sixth man on a deep NCAA run (like Devin Booker did in 2015, or the Vilanova guys from 2016-18), the odds of you being selected in the NBA draft are slim to none.

#4 NBA teams are looking to maximize draft picks better

Ever since the landmark 2016 NBA offseason, which saw the KD trade, but also a multitude of bad long-term deals offered, inept front offices have had a much harsher light being shone upon them. Mitch Kupchak, a man responsible for much of the Lakers' successes this century, got shown the door after giving Mozgov and Luol Deng four-year contracts.

Thus, not only have GMs and POBOs become more risk-averse in free agency, but they've also extended the same cautious approach to the NBA draft. Injury concerns led to Michael Porter Jr. dropping to pick no. 14 in 2018, despite him being top two in his high school class. And giving Steph Curry a bucket as a high school senior (1:03 in the video below).

If a proven prospect like MPJ could drop this low, why would any NBA GM risk a pick on an unproven, raw commodity like Bronny James?

A glance at the 2023 draft proves just this. Teams have gone not just for fit, but also for proven track records and scoring ability - neither of which are a strong suit for the incoming USC freshman.

Amari Bailey, the premier player for Sierra Canyon before Bronny, was a second-round pick after leading his HS to a 16-2 record. Bronny, by contrast, could only shepherd a 23-11 record (win percentage drop of more than 20%). Looking at this stat, and separating his performances from his family background, you would be hard-pressed to find a justification for any NBA team to expend draft capital on him.