West Virginia vs North Carolina: Who will advance to the College World Series?

With a trip to the College World Series on the line, June 7 marks the beginning of the Chapel Hill Super Regional between No.1 North Carolina (who won the Chapel Hill Regional) and No.3 West Virginia (who captured the Tucson Regional). Due to the Tar Heels having the higher seed, the series will be played in Chapel Hill, North Carolina's home turf.

The two teams have never faced each other in the postseason. They've only played each other nine times, which is very interesting considering how close the schools are geographically.

North Carolina and West Virginia being rivals would make sense due to that, but they are currently in different conferences. The Tar Heels play in the ACC while the Mountaineers are in the Big 12.

At first glance, it seems that North Carolina has the advantage, especially since it will be playing in front of a home crowd. However, diving deeper, the two teams could be more evenly matched than it appears.

After all, West Virginia did overcome No.2 DBU and No.4 Grand Canyon en route to their Regional win. They didn't face top-seeded Arizona, who lost both games in their home stadium. So, who has the edge in this matchup?

North Carolina Could Make a Run To The Title This Year

Coming off a season in which they posted a 45-14 overall record, including a 22-8 record in conference play, North Carolina has a lot of talent both offensively and on the mound.

At the plate, UNC is led by Casey Cook, Vance Honeycutt, and Parks Harber, all of whom hit over .300 on the season. Cook, a redshirt sophomore, hit .345 (good for second on the team) with 18 home runs and 76 RBIs, which led the Tar Heels. Honeycutt led the team in home runs with 24, while Harber chipped in with 20 home runs and 60 RBIs of his own for North Carolina.

Harber is a senior, so this will likely be his last go around in Chapel Hill unless he goes to grad school. However, Honeycutt and Cook could be back for another run next season if the cards fall into place.

Pitching-wise, starters Shea Sprague (69.1 innings pitched) and Jason Decaro (79.1 innings pitched) led a North Carolina rotation where three pitchers eclipsed the 50-innings pitched mark. That includes Dalton Spence, who also led the Tar Heels with a 2.15 ERA and seven saves.

This allotment of talent bodes well for North Carolina's chances at making yet another run to Omaha. They've never won a title, finishing runner-up twice in 2006 and 2007. Could this be the year they finally break through and win the big one?

West Virginia is in the Middle of a Cinderella Run

Overall, the Mountainers had a decent 2024 season, going 36-22 with a conference record of 19-11. Infielder JJ Wetherholt was supposed to be the biggest star on WVU's roster, but he battled some injuries and wasn't able to make the impact he had in years past.

Still, Wetherholt is a projected top-ten pick in the upcoming MLB Draft, and he's at 100 percent again. The Mountaineers will hope he can be a potential difference-maker in this weekend's Super Regional.

Offensively, West Virginia has some good hitters. Maybe not as deep as their counterparts, but their lineup still gets the job done. In addition to Wetherholt, senior Reed Chumley and sophomore Sam White have picked up the slack.

Chumley leads the Mountaineers in all three Triple Crown categories, notching a .310 batting average with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs. White was second in the team with a .309 batting average (right behind Chumley's), and in RBIs (42), while finishing fourth in home runs with ten.

Senior Derek Clark led the pitching staff with a strong season. The left-hander threw a team-leading 89.1 innings, going 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He's a likely MLB draftee as well.

The ERAs of Tyler Switalski and Aidan Major, the other top two starters, weren't too good with a 5.34 and 5.48 average, respectively. Still, both of them notched winning records (5-2 for Switalski and 5-4 for Major), which shows they helped WVU more often than not.

So, who wins the matchup?

As said earlier, the data in front of us suggests that UNC has the advantage in terms of a variety of factors. A better regular season record, deeper pitching staff and offense, playing at home, etc. However, West Virginia could very well win tonight or tomorrow. They are solid all around as well.

Still, the Super Regionals is likely the Tar Heels' to lose. A 2-1 series win and a trip to Omaha seem to be the most likely route forward for North Carolina.