As the Final Four arrives, NC State is where they've consistently been. They're the underdogs looking to pull off a little college basketball magic. That said, their opponent is more fierce than usual. The Purdue Boilermakers returned with the defending National Player of the Year Zach Edey and have been one of the top couple teams all year long. Notably, Purdue is an 8.5-point favorite over the Wolfpack.
But NC State has all the mojo in the world. Winners of nine in a row, the No. 11 seed is the darling of upset-loving fans everywhere. Massive forward DJ Burns has become a sensation, and the Wolfpack are channeling the never-give-up vibes of their 1983 title team.
Here's five reasons why the Wolfpack could take down Purdue.
5 reasons why NC State can beat Purdue
#5. NC State's defense can carry the day
North Carolina State was a relatively mediocre defensive team for most of the season. But in the last six games, they held opponents below 39% shooting. That group of opponents includes Duke, Marquette and North Carolina. State had only managed that four times all season, but now has done so six games in a row.
NC State is 8-2 this year when holding foes below 39% shooting. Meanwhile, when Purdue has shot worse than 44%, the Boilermakers are just 3-3. Purdue's significant vulnerability just happens to have become NC State's foremost strength. A defensive slugfest could be the Wolfpack's ticket to victory.
#4. 3-point clamps
Part of NC State's defensive improvement is that they aren't getting beaten from 3-point range. Three times in the last seven games, State held opponents to less than six 3-point makes. No opponent in the last eight games has topped 34.3% from 3-point territory.
Three of Purdue's four losses came when they were significantly limited from 3-point range. In defeats to Northwestern, Wisconsin and Ohio State, Purdue failed to top five 3-point makes.
#3. State won't turn the ball over
Purdue has been offensively efficient all season, but has struggled with opponents who don't commit turnovers. In all four Purdue losses, the opposing team committed eight or fewer turnovers. The good news for NC State is that's consistent with their production. In three of the last six games, State has committed eight or fewer turnovers, including just four against Duke.
If their defense can make Purdue grind for points while the offense avoids giving away easy possessions, they can lure Purdue into a grind-it-out game. And close games aren't something Purdue has experienced much in March. Which leaves the door open for a couple of other problems the Boilermakers would rather forget.
#2. Purdue's history of March disasters could influence a close game
A year ago, Purdue suffered the second-ever humiliation of being a top seed who lost to a No. 16 seed. But Purdue's problems have been more severe than a single upset.
The Boilermakers had been on a Final Four drought since 1980 and that included three No. 1 seed without a Final Four. It also included losses to double-digit seeds in 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Most notable is that each of the last three Purdue seasons has ended with a loss to a double-digit seed. Of course, the Wolfpack is a double-digit seed. But they're better than No. 13, No. 15 and No. 16, each of which beat Purdue over the best three years. These Purdue players have come up in a culture of March failure. If NC State stays close, that shadow will loom.
#1. NC State has a Cinderella story and will inherit bandwagon fans
While Purdue battles ghosts of negative postseasons past, NC State will draw on a wellspring of love and support. The Wolfpack and Boilermakers play the early game on Saturday. What that will mean is that fan bases from State, UConn and Alabama will start rooting for North Carolina State.
Maybe it'll be because of the Cinderella story that will draw some fans. Maybe it's the thought that a potential final matchup with NC State is less scary than Purdue.
That will draw others. But instead of a neutral site where half the fans are for State and half are against them, it'll possibly be more like 3-to-1. NC State will try to cook up one more dish of magic with healthy crowd support behind it.
Can the Wolfpack pick up another upset and return to their first Finals since Jim Valvano and 1983? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.
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