Can Arkansas make March Madness 2025? Breaking down Razorbacks' NCAA Tournament odds

John Calipari’s first season with the Arkansas Razorbacks hasn’t gone as planned. After starting 11-2 with their non-conference schedule, the Hogs have struggled to find any consistency in the tough SEC and are struggling to secure a place in the bracket.

The Razorbacks have gone 6-10 in the SEC, including a five-game losing streak in the first half of January. While they’ve covered some ground, they still have work to do.

In their latest moment of of inconsistency, the Hogs beat Missouri and Texas, only to drop their most recent tilt against South Carolina, With two games left against fellow bubble team Vanderbilt and 25th-ranked Mississippi State, the Hogs can still improve their profile going into the conference tournament.

---

Will Arkansas make the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

At this point, they still have work to do. The Razorbacks are one of the teams firmly in the bubble, with some brackets having them on the last four byes or the last four in.

John Calipari has had a difficult debut season at Arkansas. - Source: Imagn

Their most recent loss to South Carolina hurts their stock, as it was only the Gamecocks’ second conference win of the season.

John Calipari’s is 11th in an SEC conference that could send as many as 14 teams to the tournament. Winning at least one of their final two games of the season would help, but more likely than not, the Hogs will have to get at least a couple of wins in the conference tournament to have a comfortable selection Sunday.

---

Arkansas NCAA Tournament history

Despite not being a college basketball blue-blood, the Hogs ranked in the top 20 in tournament games (50) and have made it all the way to the Final Four six times with one national championship (1994). They got to the championship game a year later but lost to UCLA and haven’t made the Final Four since.

They have also had some success conference tournaments, with seven titles, their most recent one in 2000.

---

Arkansas March Madness Odds

The Razorbacks are considered a longshot to win the national title at +15000. Their odds to make the tournament are at -115.

TeamRankings.com gives the Hogs a 45.9% chance to make the tournament and no below 0.1% chance to win the national championship.

---

Arkansas Strengths

While not outstanding in many departments, John Calipari's side competes inside and rebounds at a solid rate on defense, with 24.7 boards per game, so their rim protection is good. Adou Thierro is the leader of the team with 15.6 points and six rebounds per game.

The Hogs have also closed the door for their opponents in the second half, allowing an average of 34.2 second half points, 32nd in the nation

---

Arkansas Weakness

Ironically, and despite their knack for not giving second chances at their own basket, the Razorbacks have a difficult time getting to the offensive glass. Their 7.4 offensive rebounds per game rank 286th in the nation.

---

Arkansas’ quadrant records

Because the SEC is so competitive this year, Arkansas has a lot of Q1 and Q2 games. Of course, that also means they have a tough slate and have only managed a 4-9 record versus Q1 schools. They also have a losing record against teams in Q2, at 2-3.

The good news is that the Hogs are 11-0 against Q3 and Q4 schools. They will also have a chance to improve their profile, as both games left are against Q1 programs.