Can Cincinnati make March Madness 2025? Breaking down Bearcats' NCAA Tournament odds

There is not a strong case for Cincinnati to make the NCAA Tournament this season. The Bearcats, who missed the Big Dance last season, will likely not make the field this year either.

The Bearcats opened the campaign with only a single loss in 10 games. However, a slide of eight defeats in 10 Big 12 outings saw them drop into the lower half of the standings.

With just two games left in the regular season, it's an uphill task for the team to secure a spot in March Madness.

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Will Cincinnati make the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Even if the Bearcats win against Kansas State and Oklahoma State this week, it may not be enough to warrant an at-large bid. They currently sit 12th in the league standings with a 7-11 conference record (17-12 overall).

ESPN's updated projections list the school in the "First Four Out" category, indicating it will likely miss the tournament. USA Today shares a similar assessment, with the Bearcats not included in its bracket predictions.

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Cincinnati and NCAA Tournament history

The Bearcats have historically been a strong team in the NCAA Tournament, making 33 appearances, including six Final Four trips. They won the national title back-to-back in 1961 and 1962 while finishing runners-up in 1963. Their most recent tournament appearance was in 2019.

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Cincinnati March Madness odds

According to Team Rankings, the Bearcats only have a 1% chance of making March Madness this season. Likewise, their odds of winning the national title are listed at +50,000 by the ESPN Bet Sportsbook.

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Cincinnati strengths

The Bearcats' strength this season has been their defense. They allow just 65.3 points per game to the opposition—only four teams managed to score 80 or more against them. According to KenPom, they rank 27th in the country with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 96.4.

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Cincinnati weakness

Wes Miller's team had trouble navigating its way through close games, losing five games by seven points or less. The Bearcats have also been poor on the road, going 2-7 in away games. Additionally, their offense has been average at best, tallying 71.3 PPG with an efficiency rating of 112.6, which ranks them 84th in the nation.

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Cincinnati's quadrant records

The Bearcats have a horrible 1-10 record in Quadrant 1 games. The only ranked opponent they have beaten this season is Dayton when they were in the AP Top 25. Meanwhile, they are 9-2 against Quad 2 opponents and undefeated in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games.