Can San Diego State make March Madness 2025? Breaking down the Aztecs' NCAA Tournament odds

San Diego State (21-8, 14-6) wrapped up its Mountain West Conference regular season play with an 80-61 victory over Nevada (16-15, 8-12) on Sunday at the Viejas Arena in San Diego.

Last season, the Brian Dutcher-coached Aztecs reached the Sweet Sixteen of the 2024 NCAA Tournament and were ousted by defending champion UConn in a rematch of the 2023 national final.

San Diego State is bidding for its fifth straight trip to the tournament, but it needs to get its act together in the MWC Tournament to fortify its chance of getting selected by the committee that will choose the 68 competing teams for this year's March Madness.

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50% record against winning teams is an issue for San Diego State

San Diego State may be 13 games above .500 in regular season play, but the Aztecs are 8-8 against programs with a winning record this year. Brian Dutcher's men may have beaten the likes of UC San Diego (28-4), Creighton (22-9), California Baptist (15-14), Houston (27-4), Boise State (22-9) and Nevada (16-15), but they also fell to Gonzaga (23-8), Oregon (22-8), Utah State (25-6), New Mexico (25-6), Colorado State (22-9) and UNLV (17-14).

San Diego State is 8-8 in games against teams with an above .500 record and this isn't good when you aim for another deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Worse, five of those losses were close ones, losing by no more than eight points.

The Aztecs should win all three games in the Mountain West Conference Tournament beginning with Boise State in the quarterfinals on Mar. 13 to secure an outright bid in the NCAA Tournament and avoid the possibility of not being recognized by the Selection Committee.

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Aztecs among the mid-tier teams in RPI, KenPom and NET rankings

San Diego State is consistently ranked in the mid-tier levels of the RPI, KenPom, and NET rankings that the Selection Committee uses to determine the Top 68 teams that will compete in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs are 39th in the RPI rankings with a .590 rating. They peaked at the 12th spot and fell to as low as 350th.

Meanwhile, the Brian Dutcher-coached program is 43rd in KenPom with a +16.86 adjusted efficiency margin. They have a 110.7 adjusted offensive efficiency rating, which ranks 110th in the nation, but they are 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 93.9.

San Diego State belongs to the lower-tier teams in terms of pace with an adjusted tempo of 66.3 (238th). The Aztecs' luck rating of +.014 is ranked 141st in the nation.

In terms of strength of schedule, SDSU ranks 64th overall with a +8.49 overall strength of schedule rating. Its average opposition teams' adjusted offensive efficiency of 111.6 is good for 68th place while it places 63rd in average opposition teams' adjusted defensive efficiency at 103.1. The Aztecs' non-conference strength of schedule net rating is eighth-best in the nation (+13.03).

Brian Dutcher's men are 51st in NET with a combined 9-5 mark on games played on the road or in neutral courts. Their Win Above Baseline or strength relative to other teams is ranked No. 42 in the nation.

The season has been up-and-down for the Aztecs but Dutcher knows how to flip the switch when March Madness comes along. Expect them to be included in the mix if they perform well in the conference tournament.