Florida vs No. 19 Alabama women's basketball predictions, odds and picks for March 6 | College basketball season 2024-25

No. 19 Alabama (23-7, 10-6) takes on Florida (15-16, 5-11) in the second round of the SEC Women's Basketball Tournament on Thursday. This is the 65th matchup between the two teams, with Alabama leading 34-30.

Florida, the No. 11 seed in the conference tournament, defeated No. 14 seed Auburn 60-50 to advance to the game against No. 6 seed Alabama. The Tide had a bye for the first round. They finished the regular season with a 91-84 loss against the then No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners.

Here's a closer look into the matchup's odds, picks and predictions:

Alabama vs Florida prediction

Coming off of a second-round NCAA Tournament appearance last year, Alabama entered this season at No. 24 in the AP Poll. The Tide has spent just two weeks outside the Top 25 this season and peaked at No. 18 in Week 16. In Alabama's final five regular season games, the team went 3-2, dropping two ranked matchups.

Guards Sarah Ashlee Barker and Zaay Green steal the show for Alabama's offense. Barker and Green average 17.3 and 15.8 points per game, respectively. Green leads the team in assists with a 4.6 average, and Barker is right behind her with 3.8.

The Gators struggled this year and finished the regular season with three straight losses, all against ranked opponents. Florida picked up just five wins in the competitive conference but beat Auburn by double-digits on Thursday to stay alive in the SEC Tournament.

Freshman guard Liv McGill has dominated this season. She leads the team in both points, averaging 16.0, and assists with 5.1. McGill is also valuable to Florida on the defensive front, with a team-best 1.9 steals per game.

Senior center Ra Shaya Kyle also plays a big role for Florida this season, leading the team in rebounding with an 8.8 average and shooting 59.9% from the field.

Despite their disappointing record, the Gators look good on a stat sheet. They outscore their opponents 74.9-70.7 and record an average of 40.2 rpg as compared to 35 from their opponents.

Florida may find it difficult to outscore its opponent this time, as Alabama puts up an average of 78.9 ppg and outscores its opponents at a margin of 16.2. Both teams have four players who average double-digit points, but dominant defense allows Alabama to hold its opponents to fewer points.

Sophomore forward Essence Cody is an essential piece to this strong defense. She leads the Tide in blocks with 1.8 and rebounds with 6.3. Cody also adds 1.0 spg.

The Tide has not been as successful as the Gators in terms of rebounding, averaging 38.6 rpg and allowing 36.2 from their opponents. Five Florida players average four-plus rebounds per game compared to four from Alabama. Successful rebounding could provide an opportunity for Florida to make up some ground.

Turnovers have proven to be a big issue for Florida this season, with an average of 17.3 per game. Alabama scores 20.0 ppg off of turnovers and could benefit from Florida's inability to keep control of the ball.

College basketball oddsmakers have Alabama as the 13.5-point favorite with a moneyline of -1205. Florida's moneyline is +750. The predicted point total is 148.5.

Alabama vs Florida odds

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Alabama	-13.5	Over 148.5	-1205
Florida	+13.5	Under 148.5	+750

Alabama vs Florida head-to-head

This SEC Tournament showdown will be the 65th time the Tide and Gators go head to head. The last conference contest between the SEC foes resulted in an 84-66 win for the Tide on Feb. 6. Florida is on a three-game losing streak against Alabama, dating back to Feb. 29, 2024.

Alabama vs Florida Injury Report

According to the SEC Student-Athlete Availability Report for Thursday, Alabama will have all of its players available for the tournament game. Florida's report says no reporting is required. McGill injured her ankle in Wednesday's win over Auburn, and Florida coach Kelly Rae Finley said the guard's status for Thursday's game is yet to be determined.

How to watch Alabama vs Florida?

The SEC Tournament game between the Tide and Gators will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. The conference matchup will be televised on SEC Network and can be streamed on ESPN+ and Fubo.