Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction, odds & picks for Feb. 21 | College Basketball Season 2024-25

No. 12 Michigan (20-5, 12-2) hosts No. 14 Michigan State (21-5, 12-3) in the 195th edition of the Michigan college basketball intrastate rivalry on Friday at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. At stake in this clash is the Big Ten Conference leadership and the bragging rights of which Michigan team is better this season.

Both teams are coming off crucial wins with the Wolverines edging Ohio State 86-83. On the other hand, the Spartans outclassed No. 13 Purdue 75-66 to move a half-game of the Big Ten regular season lead.

The game also sets up the coaching duel between Michigan's first-year coach Dusty May and Tom Izzo, who is on his 30th year as Michigan State's bench tactician.

Here's a closer look into the matchup's odds, picks and predictions:

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Michigan vs Michigan State prediction

Michigan has become one of the successful stories this season, rising from last place in 2023-24 to first place in the Big Ten Conference standings. Dusty May's monumental turnaround has left the nation in awe as the Wolverines have 12 more wins compared to last season and there are still six games remaining in the regular season.

Five players are averaging double-figures for Michigan led by the twin-tower combo of Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. The 7-foot-1 Goldin is averaging 15.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.5 blocks per game. The Russian, who shoots 64% from the field, also has a feathery touch from the perimeter, making 45% of his shots from the 3-point line.

On the other hand, Danny Wolf averages 12.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 3.6 apg and 1.5 bpg. Wolf has played more of a playmaker among the two and is the team's second-best passer behind Tre Donaldson.

Donaldson is Michigan's third-leading scorer at 12.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.0 steals per contest. Two other prolific guards — Roddy Gayle Jr (10.8 ppg) and Nimari Burnett (10.1 ppg) — also average in double digits and have helped the team's cause this season.

Meanwhile, Michigan State has seven players averaging at least 7.0 ppg with guard Jaden Akins leading the team's offense at 13.1 ppg. Jase Richardson is the other Spartan in double figures, tallying 10.4 per contest.

Five other players — Tre Holloman (8.4 ppg), Coen Carr (8.2 ppg), Jexon Kohler (8.2 ppg), Frankie Fidler (7.8 ppg) and Jeremy Fears Jr (7.0 ppg) — have provided the balance production that coach Tom Izzo needs to surge at the top of the conference standings.

Kohler has been Michigan State's top defender and rebounder at 7.7 rpg. He is set to have his hands full against Michigan's twin towers in Wolf and Goldin.

NCAA basketball predictions see Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite in this clash with its moneyline pegged at -162. Michigan State is given a starting moneyline of +136. The total for this Big Ten Conference matchup is 152.5 points.

Prediction: Michigan Wolverines 78, Michigan State Spartans 75

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Michigan vs Michigan State Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Michigan	-2.5 (-118)	Over 152.5 (-110)	-162
Michigan State	+2.5 (-102)	Under 152.5 (-110)	+136

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Michigan vs Michigan State head-to-head

Friday's Michigan-Michigan State matchup is both teams' 195th meeting, with the Wolverines leading their all-time clash 97-90. Seven Michigan victories in 1993 and 1996-98 were vacated, owing to the issues that affected the Wolverines during those years.

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How to watch Michigan vs Michigan State

The Michigan-Michigan State showdown will tip off at 8 p.m. ET at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It will be televised on Fox and the game is also available on livestream via the Fox Sports Go app and Fubo.