Midwest March Madness predictions 2024: Potential Upsets, key matchups, dark horse teams and more

The March Madness story to know is that the Midwest region of the NCAA Tournament is Purdue's opportunity to atone.

Too many past Boilermaker teams came into March like lions and went out like lambs. But this bracket, with several of the most interesting upset possibilities of the first round, is all about Purdue. If the Boilermakers are going to break through, this is the year.

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Midwest March Madness predictions 2024

Midwest teams list

1. Purdue
2. Tennessee
3. Creighton
4. Kansas
5. Gonzaga
6. South Carolina
7. Texas
8. Utah State
9. TCU
10. Virginia/Colorado State
11. Oregon
12. McNeese
13. Samford
14. Akron
15. Saint Peter's
16. Montana State/Grambling State

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Midwest first round games schedule

Date	Time (EST)	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV Outlet
Thurs	1:30	3- Creighton	14- Akron	TNT
Thurs	4:00	6- South Carolina	11- Oregon	TNT
Thurs	6:50	7- Texas	10- CSU/UVA	TNT
Thurs	7:25	5- Gonzaga	12- McNeese	TBS
Thurs	9:20	2- Tennessee	15- Saint Peter's	TNT
Thurs	9:55	4- Kansas	13- Samford	TBS
Fri	7:25	1- Purdue	16- Gra/Mon. St.	TBS
Fri	9:55	8- Utah State	9- TCU	TBS

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Midwest March Madness potential upsets

Samford chased Purdue in a game in November. March Madness might rematch the two.

Samford over Kansas

Perhaps the most attractive upset possibility in place is Samford to upset Kansas. First, Kansas is reeling.

This was a team that a month ago looked like a possible No. 1 seed, and they were probably overseed as a No. 4. The Jayhawks lost in the Big 12 tournament without Kevin McCullar, Jr. or Hunter Dickinson. For a team that only plays seven players more than 7.5 minutes per game, that's not good.

Meanwhile, Samford has plenty of good news. Bucky McMillian's team is the fifth–highest scoring team in college basketball (86.0 points per game) and the seventh–best 3–point shooting team (39.3%).

Samford has 12 players who play more than 7.5 minutes per game. They will be all Kansas can handle and author their own March Madness memories.

McNeese over Gonzaga

Gonzaga is another higher seeded team that looks very vulnerable. A month ago, the Bulldogs were considered a bubble team. Somehow, beating up on the weaker West Coast Conference foes it faced, made the Zags a No. 5 seed. This team is adeqaute but is not exceptional in any way.

Meanwhile, McNeese is a defensive machine. Former LSU coach Will Wade is on a mission to re–establish himself as one of the nation's best coaches. His team allows 61.5 points per game and holds foes to 38.5% shooting.

The Cowboys also are third in the nation in steals per game. They will force Gonzaga out of their comfort zone, and if they can hang in on the glass, they can win.

Oregon over South Carolina

South Carolina has overachieved all season long for coach Lamont Paris. The Gamecocks are less vulnerable than Kansas or Gonzaga but will still be an attractive possible pick for upset. Carolina is 227th in scoring and 233rd in shooting percentage. They win by grinding out close games.

Oregon, meanwhile, was mediocre for most of the season but is coming in hot. The Ducks won the Pac 12 and have plenty of talent. Jermaine Cousinard (15.4 ppg) is a transfer from South Carolina. N'Faly Dante (16.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg) will be a handful down low.

Oregon is less attractive than the other two upset picks, but plenty will buy in on the Ducks to continue a crazy March Madness story.

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Midwest Final four pick

Purdue is the team to follow. As discussed above, the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds both have glaring flaws. There's a fair chance that one or both won't survive long enough to face Purdue in the Sweet 16. Even with March Madness, it might take true madness to pick against Purdue.

Tennessee has been impressive at times but is on something of a downward spiral. If a team can slow Dalton Knecht, the Vols start to look awfully pedestrian. In fact, Creighton is probably a more imposing foe right now, but can Baylor Scheierman outshoot the Boilermakers?

Purdue has been consistently one of the best teams in the country. Zach Edey is probably the best player in college basketball. Braden Smith is a future NBA guy, and Lance Jones is tough.

Purdue was one of the best 3–point shooting teams in college basketball and has the best true post player. They'd be a favorite in a tough region, and this might be the shakiest of the four.

It's Purdue's time.