Can Baylor make March Madness 2025? Breaking down Bears' NCAA tournament odds

With conference tournament looming, the NCAA tournament bubble is suddenly a major focus for college basketball fans. For Baylor, their NCAA tournament destiny remains uncertain. The Bears carry a No. 7 seed in the Big 12 tournament and boast a 10-10 league record. Here's a rundown on their NCAA tournament chances.

Can Baylor make March Madness 2025?

Baylor's VJ Edgecombe has the Bears among the NCAA Tournament hopefuls. (Photo Credit: IMAGN)

Mark this down as a firm "probably."

Sure, the NCAA tournament bubble has plenty of moving parts. But the Bears are relatively safe. Per Teamrankings.com, Baylor has a 69% chance of making the NCAA field. Of the 103 brackets currently listed at BracketMatrix, all 103 include Baylor. ESPN's bracketology puts the Bears as the top of its last four byes, giving them a buffer of seven teams in the NCAA field.

The case for Baylor

Baylor has some impressive wins. The two biggest notches on its NCAA tournament resume are wins over St. John's and Kansas. Among the other best wins for Baylor are victories over Arkansas, Cincinnati and West Virginia.

The Bears have also avoided any bad losses. The worst loss for the Bears on TeamRanking's projections is Colorado, which the site ranks as the No. 84 team in the nation.

The case against Baylor

Fourteen losses (the current ones plus a Big 12 tournament loss) is a high number for an NCAA tournament team. Baylor's resume isn't awful, but it's not brilliant either.

The only elite win on the resume is St. John's. No other wins came against teams currently in the top 25. TeamRanking has Baylor at 2-10 against their top 25 teams. The only two losses came against TCU and Colorado, both unlikely to make the NCAA tournament.

Baylor didn't help itself with a handful of essentially irrelevant wins. Among the non-conference victories are three teams that didn't even make TeamRankings' top 250.

Does the conference tournament matter?

Absolutely. On Wednesday, Baylor will play either No. 10 seed Kansas State or No. 15 seed Arizona State. A loss would be devastating. Given that the conference tournament week always included a few mid-major bid stealers, Baylor couldn't rest very easy at 18-14 with another mediocre loss.

That said, winning on Wednesday would avert disaster. With a Wednesday win, Baylor would face Texas Tech on Thursday. A 19th win and avoiding a disastrous 14th loss should be enough to all but guarantee the Bears an NCAA tournament bid.

What about seeding?

Most projections have Baylor as a No. 11, although a No. 10 is possible. If the Bears are on the bubble, they could end up as a No. 12 seed, potentially in a last-four-in battle to make the field of 64.

What do you think about Baylor's tournament profile? Share your thoughts below in our comments section!