Can Boise State make March Madness 2025? Breaking down Broncos' NCAA tournament odds

Boise State’s March Madness hopes took a big hit on Friday with an 83-73 home loss to Colorado State. A win would have secured the team the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West Tournament, but the Broncos couldn’t slow down Nique Clifford, who torched them for 36 points. The loss came at a terrible time for their NCAA Tournament resume, making their at-large hopes even murkier.

The Broncos finished the regular season 22-9 overall and 14-6 in conference play. Their best win came early in the year when they upset current-No. 10 Clemson 84-71. Tyson Degenhart led the charge with 20 points, while Andrew Meadow added 18 in a big win.

Last year, Boise State made the tournament as an at-large bid but was eliminated in the first round. This season, it has been hovering around the bubble again, but with the Mountain West Tournament looming, it will need a strong showing to feel confident about its chances on Selection Sunday.

Does Boise State have the resume to get in?

On the plus side, the Broncos' NET ranking of 45 and RPI of 48 put them in the conversation with other bubble teams. They’ve also proven they can compete with top-tier competition, going 2-0 against AP Top 25 teams. They’ve largely taken care of business against weaker opponents, boasting a 10-1 record in Quadrant 4 games and 6-1 in Quadrant 3 games.

But there are some red flags. Their Quadrant 1 record of 4-6 isn’t great, especially compared to other teams fighting for a tournament spot. Their 1-1 record in Quadrant 2 games means they lack additional high-quality wins that could separate them from the pack.

Perhaps the biggest concern is their strength of schedule, ranked 89th in the country (by basketball portal, RealGM), which isn't exactly a mark that screams battle-tested.

Final verdict

Right now, Boise State is firmly on the bubble. Its record and key wins give it a shot, but its Quadrant 1 struggles and weaker strength of schedule could make things difficult when the selection committee makes its final decisions.

If the Broncos can win at least one or two games in the Mountain West Tournament, their case for an at-large bid gets stronger. But if they stumble, they might be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.