Can Liberty make March Madness 2025? Breaking down Flames' NCAA Tournament odds

Liberty wrapped up the regular season on its way to March Madness in dominant fashion, crushing Western Kentucky 90-61 to claim the Conference USA regular-season title and the No. 1 seed in the CUSA Tournament. The Flames finished with a 25-6 overall record (13-5 in conference play), adding yet another trophy to their growing collection of six regular-season or division titles in the last seven years.

That’s all great, but the big question remains: If Liberty doesn’t win the CUSA Tournament, can it still make March Madness?

Does Liberty have the resume?

The Flames’ NET ranking (74) and RPI (76) put them in bubble territory, but a few things are working in their favor. They’ve held their own in tough matchups, going 2-1 in Quadrant 1 games and 4-1 in Quadrant 2. Their best win? A gritty 62-58 victory over McNeese State (RPI No. 40) in November was led by Colin Porter’s 16 points, five rebounds and five assists.

But here’s the problem: Liberty hasn’t played a single AP Top 25 team all season. And while it has dominated weaker opponents (10-0 in Quadrant 4 games), its 5-4 record in Quadrant 3 raises some eyebrows.

The other red flag? The Flames' strength of schedule ranks 164th in the country, which isn't exactly the resume of a team that can afford to lose in its conference tournament and still feel safe on Selection Sunday.

CUSA tournament: Do or die?

For the second straight year, the CUSA Men’s Basketball Championship will take place at Propst Arena in Huntsville, Alabama. As the No. 1 seed, Liberty tips off tournament play Wednesday, facing the winner of No. 8 seed UTEP vs. No. 9 seed Sam Houston.

This tournament isn’t just about bragging rights. It could determine whether Liberty hears its name called on Selection Sunday. Winning the CUSA Tournament would guarantee a spot in March Madness. But what if the Flames fall short?

They’re leaving their fate in the hands of the selection committee, and with their lack of marquee wins and weak strength of schedule, that’s a risky place to be.

Final verdict

Liberty’s regular-season success is impressive, but it probably won’t be enough to secure an at-large bid if the Flames don’t win the CUSA Tournament. The Flames just don’t have the high-profile wins or the schedule strength to stand out against other bubble teams.

Simply put: If they want to go dancing, they need to take care of business in the conference tournament. If they win it, they’re in. If they don’t? Selection Sunday could be a long, nerve-wracking day in Lynchburg.