How often does the 1 seed win March Madness? Historical odds and surprising facts

At the start of every March Madness, No. 1 seeds are seen as the strongest contenders for the title. However, their actual success in winning the championship or even reaching the Final Four is a different story. Let’s explore the history behind it and what it means for your bracket picks.

First, let’s have a look at how the NCAA Tournament seedings work.

The NCAA Tournament begins with 68 teams that qualify based on their performances in the regular season and conference tournaments.

A Selection Committee ranks these teams, giving the best ones the No. 1 seed. Before the main event, four teams are eliminated in the First Four, leaving 64 teams to compete. These remaining teams are divided into four regions, with each region containing 16 teams ranked from 1st to 16th.

Higher-ranked teams face lower-ranked ones in the first round, meaning No. 1 seeds play No. 16 seeds, No. 2 seeds play No. 15 seeds, and so on.

This format is designed to give the top seeds the easiest path to success as a reward for their strong regular season and conference tournament performances.

However, despite their advantage, history has shown that upsets are common, and No. 1 seeds do not always live up to expectations.

How often does the 1 seed win March Madness?

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, No. 1 seeds have won 25 of the 39 March Madness.

The first time a top seed won was in 1987, when Indiana edged out No. 2 seed Syracuse 74-73 in the championship game. However, the last No. 1 seed to claim the title was UConn in 2024, defeating another No. 1 Seed Purdue 75-60 in the final.

Historical success of No. 1 seeds in March Madness

No. 1 seeds have historically been the most successful in March Madness, winning 64.1% of championships, which is 25 out of 39, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Their dominance has increased since the field grew to 68 teams in 2011, claiming 9 of the last 13 titles (69.2%).

Do No. 1 seeds always make the Final Four?

No, No. 1 seeds do not always make the Final Four. While No. 1 seeds continue to win March Madness at a strong rate, their Final Four appearances have declined in recent years.

From 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, top seeds claimed 62 of 156 Final Four spots (39.7%). However, since the field grew to 68 teams in 2011, their presence has dropped, making up just 17 of 52 spots (32.7%).