Insider Joe Lunardi claims ACC powerhouse could lose March Madness spot to potential bid stealer

The North Carolina Tar Heels' hopes for a spot in March Madness are now in the hands of the selection committee. After a close loss to rival Duke 74-71 in the ACC Tournament semifinals, UNC's postseason future for the NCAA Tournament has blurred vision.

The loss, which was their third to Duke this season, left them with a 22-13 overall record and a low 1-12 mark in Quad 1 games, a factor that could weigh heavily against them when the selection committee finalizes the bracket.

ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi shared his thoughts on UNC's tough position on College GameDay on Saturday:

“I'm not confident at all because I'm not sure we're done with bid stealers,” Lunardi said.

He explained that Colorado State’s win on Friday night already tightened the tournament bubble by one spot, and upsets by teams like Memphis, VCU, or UC San Diego could further reduce the number of available at-large bids.

“If I'm North Carolina, I'm worried about a lack of quality wins against a great schedule,” Lunardi added.

Currently, VCU, sitting at 26-6 as the A-10 regular-season champion, and UC San Diego, boasting a 29-4 record heading into the Big West Championship, could also shake up the bracket with unexpected wins.

Meanwhile, Memphis, currently the top seed in the AAC, is a projected auto-bid. They could still make the tournament as a high-ranking team, which would push another team out of the field.

March Madness: The scenario now for North Carolina

The Tar Heels are 1-12 in Quad 1 games, with their only win coming against a top-ranked opponent early in the season. Despite playing one of the most challenging schedules in the country, they were unable to capitalize in key moments.

Lunardi noted that the fate of the Tar Heels is now tied to other bubble teams’ performances,

“We’ll be keeping an eye on all of these bubble teams, North Carolina and Texas at the moment, simply hoping that the Colorado State vs. Boise State loser race falls out and frees up a spot between now and tomorrow,” he said.

UNC now sits at No. 35 in the NET rankings. Their strong record in Quad 2-4 games (21-1) works in their favor, but a Quad 3 loss to Stanford adds a blemish to their resume. According to the NCAA, Quad 1 wins and Quad 3 and 4 losses play a key role in tournament selection and seeding, which leaves UNC on shaky ground.