North Carolina vs. Duke basketball prediction, odds and picks- March 14, 2025 (2024-2025 college basketball season)

When Duke and North Carolina meet on Friday, one of the most enduring and venerable rivlaries in college basketball will get another chapter. The two schools are separated by only a few miles and each boasts one of the greatest programs in basketball history. They share a league, a state and a mutual dislike. They'll meet for a path to the ACC Tournament championship.

The No. 1 Blue Devils (29-3) will be a solid favorite, but North Carolina (22-12) has likely played its way into the NCAA Tournament field this week and has nothing to lose.

North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction

Thursday's injury to Cooper Flagg changes the landscape of the ACC Tournament for Duke. (Photo Credit: IMAGN)

Duke is not only the top ranked team in the nation, but the Blue Devils have only lost one game since Nov. 26. Duke has managed to be elite on both ends of the floor. Its 83.3 points per game is 13th best in the nation, while the 61.6 points allowed per game is sixth best nationally.

The Blue Devils shoot 48.9% as a team (18th best), while holding opponents to just 38.4% shooting (fifth lowest nationally). Duke is elite in most categories and commits just 9.5 turnovers per game, one of the lowest totals in college basketball.

The Blue Devils have leaned heavily on star Cooper Flagg (18.9 ppg). But with Flagg ostensibly out, wings Kon Knueppel (14.2 ppg) and Tyrese Proctor (11.8 ppg) will be pivotal.

North Carolina has won eight of its last nine games, with the only loss of that group coming to Duke. UNC is very good offensively, scoring 81.1 points per game, but has struggled defensively, giving up 75.0 ppg.

UNC will likely lean heavily on two standouts with very different backgrounds. Super senior RJ Davis (17.3 ppg) has written his name in the UNC record book many times for prolific scoring. Freshman Ian Jackson (12.7 ppg) can score in bunches.

This isn't a typical Duke team and UNC's momentum will make the game competitive. That said, even without Flagg, Duke probably has enough punch to survive a good challenge from UNC.

North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Odds

Duke is a 7.5 point favorite over the Tar Heels. The game's over/under is at 152.5, suggesting something of a shootout. On the money line, a Duke win is paying at around -340, with a UNC upset paying out around +270.

North Carolina vs. Duke Head-to-Head

North Carolina holds a 145-119 lead in this significant rivalry. Duke has won the last two games in the series.

North Carolina vs. Duke Injuries

North Carolina

The Tar Heels are reportedly healthy.

Duke

The Blue Devils have a couple of big issues here. Flagg appeared to likely sprain his ankle late in the first half of yesterday's game with Georgia Tech. Postgame comments from coach Jon Scheyer suggested that it is unlikely he will play today.

Duke forward Maliq Brown appeared to aggravate a shoulder injury in the Georgia Tech game as well. Brown had missed a couple weeks of action due to a prior shoulder problem. He is being listed as a game-time decision.

What do you think about the big UNC/Duke battle? Share your take below in the comments section!