Sportskeeda’s March Madness 2025 Men's First-Round Predictions: Winners & Upsets

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is right around the corner, and we've got a ton of action-packed and interesting games in the opening salvo of the annual showcase.

The brackets for the four regional tournaments were revealed on Sunday. Let's take a closer look into what would be the likely scenario for every game in the First Four and the first round:

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Sportskeeda’s March Madness 2025 First-Round Predictions – Men's Brackets

First Four

March Madness begins on Tuesday with the First Four as 11-seeds San Diego State and North Carolina seek to break the tie and move to the first round of the South Regionals. But before that, 16-seed teams Alabama State and St. Francis PA square off in a do-or-die clash, with the winner facing No. 1 seed Auburn.

The next day, 16-seeds American and Mount St. Mary's clash for the right to face East top seed Duke while 11-seeds Texas and Xavier take the court to determine 6th seed Illinois' first-round opponent in the Midwest.

Predictions:

#16 Alabama State beats #16 St Francis PA 65-60

#11 North Carolina beats #11 San Diego State 80-68

#16 Mount St Marys defeats #16 American 69-59

#11 Xavier defeats #11 Texas 80-72

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Men's March Madness 2025 First-Round Predictions winners and upsets

NCAA Tournament First Round

The first round of the 2025 March Madness kicks off on March 20 and ends on March 21. Thirty-two action-packed games are scheduled in the four regions, with the winners marching through the second round.

With the predictions in the First Four in place, let's look at the likely outcomes in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

South Regionals

#1 Auburn beats #16 Alabama State 90-55

#9 Creighton upsets #8 Louisville 75-74

#5 Michigan beats #12 UC San Diego 80-62

#4 Texas A&M beats #13 Yale 79-70

#11 North Carolina upsets #6 Ole Miss 70-66

#3 Iowa State beats #14 Lipscomb 65-52

#10 New Mexico upsets #7 Marquette 70-67

#2 Michigan State beats #15 Bryant 95-59

West Regionals

#1 Florida beats #16 Norfolk State 100-55

#8 UConn beats #9 Oklahoma 76-72

#5 Memphis beats #12 Colorado State 69-55

#4 Maryland beats #13 Grand Canyon 89-68

#11 Drake upsets #6 Missouri 105-101

#3 Texas Tech beats #14 UNC Wilmington 82-58

#7 Kansas beats #10 Arkansas 72-70

#2 St. John's beats #15 Omaha 80-51

East Regionals

#1 Duke beats #16 Mount St Mary's 99-51

#8 Mississippi St beats #9 Baylor 80-70

#5 Oregon beats #12 Liberty 65-58

#4 Arizona beats #13 Akron 82-66

#11 VCU upsets #6 BYU 70-68

#3 Wisconsin beats #14 Montana 88-60

#10 Vanderbilt upsets #7 Saint Mary's 79-76

#2 Alabama beats #15 Robert Morris 110-66

Midwest Regionals

#1 Houston beats #16 SIUE 91-46

#8 Gonzaga beats #9 Georgia 82-72

#5 Clemson beats #12 McNeese 90-65

#4 Purdue beats #13 High Point 90-75

#6 Illinois beats #11 Xavier 82-67

#3 Kentucky beats #14 Troy 101-59

#10 Utah State upsets #7 UCLA 77-76

#2 Tennessee beats #15 Wofford 92-59

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Utah State, North Carolina may likely pull off upsets

Normally, the first round separates the contenders from the pretenders. And for March Madness 2025, the 4-seeds of each region will likely advance to the next round.

There will be some surprises in the bottom half of the brackets, and three of them will likely take place in the 10-seed vs 7-seed showdowns, where Utah State, Vanderbilt and New Mexico pull off surprise wins to wreak havoc on the brackets.

Another pairing group that fans and the March Madness betting public should look upon is the 11-seed vs 6-seed groupings. We expect crazy things to happen at this time of the year and most of the time, upsets happen in this pairing.

Three 11-seeds VCU, North Carolina and Drake may likely pull off stunning first-round victories over their higher-ranked opponents to make the second round more exciting. Creighton might be the only 9-seed to come up with a reversal as Gonzaga, Mississippi State and back-to-back defending champion UConn will show off their pedigree and March Madness experience.

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First-round betting insights and trends

The latest lines from BetMGM show No. 1 seeds Florida and Duke are neck-and-neck in the odds to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Gators are slightly ahead of the Blue Devils, with the SEC contenders having a -350 odds while the ACC regular season-tournament winners are at -360.

The other top seeds Auburn and Houston are given a +400 and +600 odds to win, respectively. The No. 2 seeds Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State and St. John's occupy the second quartet of favorites with the Crimson Tide venturing at +1200, the Volunteers at +1400, and the Spartans and the Red Storm tied at +2200.

Iowa State and Texas Tech round out the Top 10 with +3000 and +3500 odds, respectively while Kentucky (+4000), UConn (+5000), Arizona (+5000), Gonzaga (+5000), Maryland (+5000) and Wisconsin (+5000) are bubbling under the betting charts as of March 17.

The First Four ignites the excitement of March Madness 2025. Tuesday's games will be a primer of what to expect in the first round of this year's NCAA Tournament. So buckle up and let the march to the Big Dance begin!