Top 4 seeds predictions for 2024 Men's NCAA tournament ft. UConn

Once again, UConn came up clutch in conference tournament week. UConn took care of business in the Big East Tournament and left no doubt that they will be a No. 1 seed in Sunday's NCAA Tournament selection.

As the defending champions, Dan Hurley's Huskies were probably a No. 1 had they lost, but that didn't slow UConn. The same can't be said of almost certain No. 1 seeds Houston and Purdue.

In Purdue's case, at least the loss was a down-to-the-wire game in overtime. In Houston's case, an embarrassing loss to Iowa State seems foreboding for the projected top seed. And then there's the fourth No. 1 seed, which is another saga.

---

Top four seeds in 2024 Men's NCAA tournament prediction

Tristen Newton and UConn won the Big East title and will get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

UConn

At 31-3, the defending champions are a certain No. 1 seed. The Huskies have won their last seven games and are ranked No.2 in the NET rankings.

Like Houston and Purdue, even a conference tournament loss would not have harmed the Huskies. It will be interesting to see if they get the top overall seed and a shot at a theoretically weaker No. 2 seed.

Houston

Even after a 69-41 loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 title game, Houston will remain a top seed.

The 30-4 Cougars retained their top spot in the NET rankings. Houston put up an imposing 16-4 record in quad 1 games. Those 20 quad 1 games are more than any other team, including Purdue and UConn (each 16 quad 1 games). Accordingly, Houston could end up with the No. 1 overall seed.

Purdue

Purdue took a tough 76-75 Big Ten semifinal loss to Wisconsin. That won't derail a 29-4 season which leaves Purdue sitting at No. 3 in the NET rankings.

Purdue did play only three quad 4 games, substantially less than Houston (7) or UConn (9). The Boilermakers probably won't get the No. 1 overall seed but certainly weren't far off that pace.

North Carolina

This is a difficult spot to figure. Tennessee had a fighting chance at the last No. 1 seed but got humbled 73-56 by Mississippi State in the SEC quarterfinals. That boosted Carolina, who, in turn, lost the ACC finals 84-76 to NC State. Arizona also lost in its league tournament and probably wasn't in the discussion anyway.

Iowa State has some late momentum as the last No. 1 seed and blasted Houston in the Big 12 finals. The Cyclones jumped from No. 8 to No. 6 in the NET rankings with the win, but nine quad 4 wins probably hurt Iowa State's resume.

North Carolina has an identical 27-7 record as Iowa State. The Heels are No. 8 in the NET and has four quad 2 losses this year (Iowa State had one). But at the end of the day, the Tar Heels' overall body of work will nab them the final No. 1 seed.

---

Who is the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament?

UConn, not surprisingly, is the favorite to win the Touranment at +450. The gap of the top three teams from the rest is apparent, as Houston is at +600, while Purdue is at +650.

The fourth most favored team is Arizona, way back at +1500. North Carolina is at +1700, while Iowa State is at +1900.

---

How many No. 1 seeds have won the NCAA tournament?

Since the NCAA Tournament went to its current seeding format, 24 of 38 NCAA Championships have been won by No. 1 seeds.

Thirty-seven No. 1 seeds have reached the Tournament finals. Sixty no.1 seeds have reached the Final Four, making it slightly more likely four two No. 1 seeds to do so than just one.

Incidentally, the other seeds to win NCAA titles are: five No. 2 seeds, four No. 3 seeds, two No. 4 seeds and a solitary No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8 seed.