Top 5 reasons why Cooper Flagg's Duke won't overcome Houston's dominant defense ft. 3-point shooting, defending

As Houston prepares to face Duke in the Final Four, the Cougars are something of an afterthought nationally. Frankly, they shouldn't be. Houston earned its Final Four berth just like Duke did, and the lack of respect is surprising. The Cougars largely ride with stifling defense, and it could well be that Flagg and Duke can't outlast it. Here are five reasons the Cougars pull the upset.

Top 5 reasons Houston will upset Duke

NCAA Basketball: Final Four-Houston Practice - Source: Imagn

#5. Houston is just as hot as Duke

Duke is admittedly a red-hot team, having not lost a game since a February 8 battle with Clemson. But what often gets overlooked is that the same is true of Houston. In fact, the Cougars haven't lost since February 1 against Texas Tech. Neither team has a major advantage here, but that certainly gives the Cougars a puncher's chance.

#4. The Cougars guard the 3-pointer well

Houston was the best team in the nation this season at getting opponents to take bad shots. Opponents shot just 38.2% against the Cougars, the lowest in the nation. Houston guards the 3-pointer well, allowing just 6.7 per game and holding foes to 30.1% from long range. Houston hasn't allowed a double-digit number of 3-pointers since that February 1 loss.

#3. Houston's own perimeter scoring game is underrated

Meanwhile, Houston's own offensive game gets overlooked. Playing a low-speed style, Houston doesn't put up a ton of points. But in the last nine games Houston has played, the Cougars have shot 35% or better from 3-point range and made between seven and 10 3-pointers in every game. That type of consistency could be pivotal against Duke.

#2. Houston's experience could be meaningful

It's worth noting that four of Duke's first six players (or five of nine) are freshmen. This whole circus of the Final Four could throw the young Blue Devils off their stride. Meanwhile, Houston's first eight players include a sophomore, three juniors and four seniors. Experience could be a major edge for the Cougars.

#1. The pressure of expectations will weigh on Duke

Duke has a major target on its back. All season long, there was somebody else to consider. Florida, Auburn, Houston, each had their share of attention. But at the end of the day, Duke's talent makes the Blue Devils the favorite. But it's also Jon Scheyer's first Final Four with a very young team. If Houston can keep the game close (and that's their style), the pressure could go to Duke.

Duke has seen this in reverse. When the Blue Devils won their own first NCAA title, they had to overcome a gargantuan favorite in UNLV. They hung close and let the game pressure weigh down the Running Rebels, and then grabbed the upset. Houston would like to follow that gameplan.

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