Top 5 reasons why Kelvin Sampson's Houston won't win the 2025 national championship

The 2024-2025 Houston Cougars are doing all they can to win the program's first national championship in this year's national tournament. Coached by Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars, as the top seed of the Midwest Region, have made it to the Final Four of the 2025 March Madness.

Houston clinched the Final Four berth after defeating the second-seeded Tennessee Volunteers 69-50 on Sunday.

Now, as they captured their region and are now in the semifinal of the winner-take-all tourney, the Cougars will be matched up against the No. 1 seed of the East region in the talented Jon Scheyer-coached Duke Blue Devils.

As the two programs are one-half of the second time all first seeds got into the NCAA Final Four, they pose a surefire matchup in their much-awaited game on Saturday.

Nonetheless, the odds are against Houston, as many in the college basketball landscape are favoring the Blue Devils over them. Whatever the case is, it will be a battle of two established programs, and if the Cougars do win, two national title-hungry teams are waiting for them.

With this, let's take a look at why Houston won't win the 2025 national championship.

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5 Reasons why Kelvin Sampson's Houston won't win the 2025 national championship

#5 Tempo and pace

Per KenPom, Sampson's team is ranked just 360th nationally in overall tempo, meaning that the team is banking on their slower pace in play.

While they have made it this deep in the national tournament, their time used up on offense may be to their detriment against teams like the Blue Devils and the Gators, who play at a much higher speed.

#4 Size

Despite the Cougars being known for their grit-and-grind defense that forced their opponents to struggle on offense, the team only has two rotation pieces that are at least 6-foot-8 in forwards J'Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler.

Teams like Duke and the Tigers possess names like 7'2" Khaman Malauach and 6'10 Johni Broome, who may match up better against the smaller Houston squad.

#3 Limited shot-creating

Houston's offense heavily relies on fifth-year guard L.J. Cryer, who averages a team-high 15.4 points, to go along with 2.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists per contest. The senior can explode on any given fixture, as he has shown on multiple occasions, as the scorers that follow him produce collectively in certain games.

But with him being the focal point of the Cougars' points production, they might not be able to match up against the remaining teams. The Blue Devils' spitfire scoring in both the perimeter in the paint will be tough.

The likes of Auburn and Florida, should they match up with them in the finals, are both known for their hard-nosed scoring inside, which could prove difficult for Houston.

#2 Talent

As mentioned earlier, Sampson's squad is fielded on offense by Cryer, along with standouts such as Emanuel Sharp for his two-way abilities and Milos Uzan for his facilitating. But, although they have an influx of talent, it may not match up well against the three remaining programs in the Final Four.

Duke, Auburn and Florida all have leading scorers that are considered by many as some of the best in the whole country in Cooper Flagg, Johni Broome and Walter Clayton Jr., respectively, who might outplay Houston's main rotation.

To add to this, the Blue Devils themselves have other scorers that could go off in Kon Knueppel and Isaiah Evans, who will be a problem for the Cougars.

#1 History of falling short on the big stage

The Cougars have been to the NCAA Final Four stage seven times in program history, but this will only be their second appearance in the 21st century. The only other time they've reached it was in 2021, when they lost by the then top-seeded Baylor Bears by 19 points, 78-59.

This is also only the third time since 2000 that Houston was in the Elite Eight. Given the program's history, this is their chance to either break the streak of losing or finally get over the hump on the biggest stage.