Virginia vs Louisville Basketball Predictions, Odds and Picks - Jan. 27 | College Basketball Season 2023-24

In a battle of David versus Goliath, the ACC's fourth-best team, the Virginia Cavaliers (14-5) take on conference bottom feeders Louisville (6-13). The Cavaliers are currently on a three-game winning streak and have all the confidence in the world. But the Cardinals, on the other hand, are just scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point – currently in the middle of a four-game skid.

Virginia is coming off a hard-fought OT victory against NC State whose score doesn't even look like the game was extended. Perhaps this could mean that the Cavs are fatigued for this road game on Louisville's home court. But home-court advantage isn't exactly in the Cardinals' favor here too, as they're only 5-6 at home thus far this season.

Virginia vs Louisville Prediction

In a matchup between two of the worst-scoring teams in the nation, the relatively better one at getting buckets could pull off a win in a rather low-scoring match.

Both Virginia and Louisville are at the bottom of the ACC in terms of scoring (14th and 13th-worst, respectively). They both shoot at around 44 percent from the field and are under 40 percent from 3, which is not bad, but mediocre at best. Louisville does outscore Virginia on average by roughly seven points, but that likely won't matter because of one thing: the Cavaliers' conference-leading defense.

Virtually nobody comes close to Virginia's defensive pressure in the ACC. Aside from allowing the fewest opponent PPG (57.9 ppg at under 40% FG), the second-best defense allows eight points more. And it's not even the big men that help the Cavs do this: guards Reece Beekman (2.3 steals/game) and Ryan Dunn (2.3 blocks and 7.1 rebounds/game) are absolute pitbulls on the defensive end.

Not only is Virginia at the top of the ACC defensively, but they're also the third-best defensive team in the nation behind just St. Mary's and Houston in terms of points allowed and FG percentage allowed. Since Louisville already struggles to score, going up against such a suffocating defense could prove their downfall.

Virginia vs Louisville Betting Odds

TEAM	SPREAD	TOTAL	MONEYLINE
VIRGINIA	-13.5 (-125)	u130.5 (-120)	-901
LOUISVILLE	+16 (-110)	o127.5 (-117)	+900

Virginia vs Louisville Head-to-Head

In 28 total basketball games between Virginia versus Louisville, the Cavaliers hold a comfortable 23-5 record over the Cardinals – a matchup that dates way back to the 1923-1924 season (via VirginiaSports.com). With a win, Virginia can earn its fourth straight season sweep of Louisville – who hasn't even been able to beat the Cavs at home in their last three games.

The last time these two teams met on Jan. 3, the Cardinals were handed a 77-53 beatdown behind 18 points from Isaac McKneely and a double-double from Ryan Dunn (15 points, 10 rebounds).

Where to watch Virginia vs Louisville

Venue: KFC Yum! Center - Louisville, KY

Date and time: Jan. 27, 2024 – 12:00 p.m. ET

TV: The CW

Virginia vs Louisville Key Injuries

Virginia

No injuries

Louisville

F Emmanuel Okorafor, ankle (OUT INDEFINITELY)

F JJ Traynor, shoulder (OUT FOR SEASON)

C Dennis Evans, shoulder (OUT INDEFINITELY)