Will Arkansas make the NCAA tournament? Exploring HC John Calipari and Co.'s March Madness chances 

Arkansas (16-11, 5-9) had a promising start to its 2024-25 non-conference regular season, under the tutelage of former national champion coach John Calipari. The Razorbacks raced to an 11-2 start and were ranked No. 23 in the AP poll before the SEC regular season kicked off.

The promising start unraveled, all of a sudden, losing five straight SEC regular season games. Worse, top freshman recruit Boogie Fland sustained a thumb injury during Arkansas' game against Florida. He underwent surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament, forcing him to be out for the season.

Since the 0-5 start, the Razorbacks have gone 5-4, winning games over No. 12 Kentucky (Calipari's former team), Texas and No. 15 Missouri. Their matches against Top 10 teams Florida, Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn were closely fought before losing in the end game.

Arkansas needs to follow up on its upset win over Missouri by winning all of its remaining games against Texas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to gain a favorable position in the SEC Tournament and hopefully emerge victorious in the competition to secure an outright bid.

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Arkansas still alive with win over Missouri

Arkansas still showed signs of life despite having a lackluster SEC regular season. The single-digit losses against Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn showed they aren't giving up without a fight for a slot in the NCAA Tournament.

And against No. 15 Missouri (20-7, 9-5), the Razorbacks had their best game of the season, coming back from eight points down to beat the Tigers 92-85.

The victory gave their fledgling hopes alive. Zvonimir Ivisic led the team's offense with 29 points, four rebounds, two steals and two blocks while Johnell Davis and D.J. Wagner combined for 35 points.

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Arkansas ranks in the middle tier of KenPom and NET, but goes down to 66th in RPI

Arkansas is in the Top 40 in NET and KenPom rankings despite an up-and-down 2024-25 season. The Razorbacks are 36th in KenPom with an adjusted efficiency margin of +17.92.

The John Calipari-coached team is 80th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 113.0 points per game per 100 possessions and 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 95.1 ppg/100 possessions. Arkansas' adjusted tempo ranks 89th in the nation at 69.1 possessions per 40 minutes while their luck rating is -.038 (283rd).

The Razorbacks have an overall strength of schedule rating of 12.68 (17th). It has a 114.8 average adjusted offensive efficiency of opposing teams, which ranks 14th in the nation.

Arkansas' 102.2 average defensive efficiency of opposing teams places them in No. 30. Unfortunately, the Razorbacks are 280th in non-conference strength of schedule rating at -2.79.

The John Calipari-coached team is 40th in the NET rankings with a combined 11-0 mark against Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 rivals. They are 1-2 against Quadrant 2 opponents and 4-9 when facing Quadrant 1 teams. Arkansas is 3-5 on the road and has a 1-2 record in neutral gymnasiums.

Arkansas has a lower rating in RPI with a 0.564 score, ranking lower than Ohio State and Xavier. It peaked at 42nd place and had its lowest ranking at 222nd. The Razorbacks were 67th in the RPI rankings last week.

John Calipari and his men need to stage a miraculous run in Arkansas' last four assignments in the SEC regular season to reach 20 wins.

The surest way to get to the NCAA Tournament without needing the selection committee is to win the SEC Tournament. This is considered a tough task to perform for Arkansas, considering the roster of teams that will compete for the automatic bid.