Will Kentucky basketball make the 2024 March Madness? Breaking down the Wildcats' NCAA tournament 2024 odds

The recent struggles of the Kentucky Wildcats after starting the season strong are well-documented. They've lost four of their last six after a 14-3 start, and coach John Calipari started feeling the heat from frustrated fans, going as far as saying that he wishes they'd just attack him instead of his players.

All its shortcomings in the last few games has bumped Kentucky down from being at least a top-5 ranked team to far below their initial projections for the year. Nevertheless, the Wildcats' chances of making it to March Madness looks a bit slim, but they could still make it.

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Will Kentucky basketball make the 2024 NCAA Tournament?

There's still hope for John Calipari and his boys, but their window to get into the postseason is getting smaller by the day.

At the moment, the 'Cats have eight games left to try and right the ship of their sub-par regular season. If they don't get things in order by that time, they will struggle to get an at-large bid. Although getting such a bid is still possible for them, as they're 25th in the NET, no team below that has failed to get an at-large bid (via Sports Illustrated).

For now, Kentucky needs at least three Quad 1 wins to solidify their chances on Selection Sunday. That means they will have to beat at least either Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State or Tennessee. Winning two of these games will make their chances even better, but one victory will be enough, assuming they don't suffer another loss.

Kentucky ranks 22nd in the AP rankings, dropping five spots from their previous position following their recent stretch of games.

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Kentucky basketball NCAA tournament history

Say what you want about the Wildcats' late-season struggles this year, but the program remains among the most decorated in the nation, and their NCAA tournament history speaks for itself.

Kentucky leads everyone in several major NCAA tournament stats. That includes Elite Eight appearances (38), Sweet Sixteen appearances (45), total NCAA tournament appearances (60), tournament games played (184) and total postseason appearances (68).

Moreover, the Wildcats are also the only team to have won multiple NCAA and NIT championships, having won the National Invitation Tournament twice.

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Kentucky basketball March Madness odds

To put it simply, there's not a lot of confidence that the Wildcats can make the postseason based on their updated March Madness odds. As of Feb. 13 (via WYMT), here are the odds:

• Odds to win the national championship: +2500
• Preseason national championship odds: +1600
• Pre-new year national championship odds: +1400

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Kentucky basketball strengths

Scoring

At the moment, only three teams average more points per game than the Wildcats, who average 89.5 points per game for fourth-best in the nation.

That points to a relatively potent offense that can outscore anyone at any given day, so long as the defense holds. Five players are averaging in double figures for Kentucky, culminating in a balanced attack on offense.

Individual talent

Senior Antonio Reeves leads the team in scoring with 19.5 points/game on an efficient 49.8% FG shooting for a guard.

He's also shooting at an elite rate from three (44.5%) for the year. Not a lot of teams have this level of talent in terms of individual production, meaning the Wildcats have someone they could go to if they need a bucket and everything else falls apart.

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Kentucky basketball weaknesses

Closing games

Kentucky's performances during their three latest losses against Florida, Tennessee and Gonzaga make it clear: they struggle a lot when closing games.

These games are a perfect example. In each of them, the Wildcats didn't struggle on the offensive end, but in crunch time, they just couldn't close things out. Things were far more evident in the OT loss to Florida.

Defense

Scoring means nothing if you can't stop the other team from doing it too, which is basketball 101.

And when it comes to defense, it seems like Kentucky just wants to keep trying to outshoot their opponents instead of putting effort to stop them. The Wildcats are dead-last in the SEC in terms of opponent points allowed (78.8) while also allowing a ridiculous amount of FG attempts.

That points to them not applying deliberate, constant defensive pressure all game, merely relying on their offensive sets and individual talent to get things done.

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Kentucky basketball's quadrant records

Not a lot of things look pretty here, too. As one sees, the Wildcats have struggled mightily against Quad 1, with most of their relatively unimpressive wins being in Quads 2, 3 and 4.

Their only good win in Quad 1 was their victory over North Carolina. That's it. Not to mention, their four latest losses were also all in Quad 1, which is why they're in quite the precarious situation.

• Quad 1: 2-5
• Quad 2: 3-1
• Quad 3: 5-1
• Quad 4: 6-0