Will UNC make the NCAA tournament? Exploring HC Hubert Davis and co.'s March Madness chances

UNC will have its work cut out to make the NCAA Tournament, meaning it has to win its remaining games to make it outright.

The North Carolina Tar Heels (17-11, 10-6) have had an up-and-down season under coach Hubert Davis. However, they are within the top 68 of three ranking classifications, which could influence the committee's selection for the final bracket of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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Inconsistency hounds UNC's 2024-25 season campaign

North Carolina has had an up-and-down season despite being ranked No. 9 in the AP preseason rankings. RJ Davis and his teammates were beating weaker teams from the start of the non-conference season but couldn't get over top teams, losing to Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State and Florida before beating UCLA in its penultimate non-conference schedule on Dec. 21.

They ended 7-5 in non-conference games, pulling them down the AP Top 25 rankings. North Carolina's conference regular season, meanwhile, could be likened to a roller-coaster, surging to a 5-1 mark early before going 2-5 in the next seven games.

The Tar Heels bounced back in their last three games, winning all of them to secure a decent record going into its final four games of the regular season and the ACC Tournament.

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UNC is 29th in RPI rankings and Top 50 of KenPom, NET rankings

UNC's inconsistent season had them taking an uncommon route in three basic rankings the NCAA used to differentiate the pretenders from the contenders.

As of Feb. 23, the Tar Heels are ranked 29th in the RPI rankings with a rating of .601. Hubert Davis and his team peaked at No. 3 and declined to as low as No. 291. Last week, they ranked No. 32 in the RPI.

Meanwhile, North Carolina is ranked 44th in the latest KenPom rankings, with an adjusted efficiency margin of +16.68. The Tar Heels are No. 35 in adjusted offensive efficiency at 118.0 but are 62nd in adjusted defensive efficiency at 101.3. Their adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) ranks 23rd at 71.3, while their 201st luck rating is .009.

North Carolina has a strength of schedule rating of 11.77 (27th) due to its 114.2 average adjusted offensive efficiency of opposing teams and 101.6 average adjusted defensive efficiency of opposing teams. The Tar Heels ranked seventh in the non-conference strength of schedule rating.

Meanwhile, North Carolina is ranked No. 45 in the NET rankings due to its Wins Above Bubble ranking of 46th. The Tar Heels have a combined 16-1 mark against Quadrant 2, Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 teams but are 1-10 against Quadrant 1 teams.

The next four regular season games and the ACC Tournament will be crucial for North Carolina's chances in the NCAA Tournament. If the Tar Heels continue their last-ditch surge in the ACC regular season, the selectors might consider them in the upper 32 of the NCAA Tournament bracket once Selection Sunday is held.