Notre Dame is having its moment as the darling of college football, but Ohio State is approaching. The Fighting Irish are seeking a first title in over 35 years, while Ohio State has been a fixture as one of college football's top programs. Additionally, Ohio State is a solid favorite, with betting odds hanging around a 9.5-point edge for the Buckeyes.
But Notre Dame's moment in the sun could end quickly. Here are three reasons why Notre Dame won't pull the upset over Ohio State in the CFP title game.
3 reasons Notre Dame won't upset Ohio State
3. An underwhelming Notre Dame offense
Notre Dame's best offensive hope is running back Jeremiyah Love, who is battling injuries and has been fairly ineffective in the CFP. In the last two games, Love has 17 carries for 65 yards.
Even with a healthy Love, the Irish simply don't have huge playability. The Irish have 61 20+ yard plays, which ranks in the middle of the pack in CFP and even lower if Notre Dame's 15 games played are considered.
Notre Dame's ground game has been impressive, but it's declining with improved competition. In the last five games, Notre Dame's yards per carry has gone from 9.4 to 6.8 to 5.5 to 4.2 to 2.8. That's a concerning trend when preparing to compete against the top-scoring defense in college football (just over 12 points per game allowed).
2. An overwhelming OSU defense
Notre Dame has won a trio of CFP games by scoring 27, 23 and 27 points and amassing under 400 yards in all three games. Good luck reaching even those modest numbers against the Buckeyes. Ohio State has allowed more than 21 points exactly once in a 32-31 loss to an Oregon team that they beat by 20 in the CFP.
Ohio State allowed 280 yards twice all season against Oregon and Texas. The Longhorns managed just 14 points with their 341 total yards. Ohio State, meanwhile, has 51 sacks and 106 tackles for loss on the season. The Buckeyes will put the Irish in difficult situations and then pounce.
1. The talent gap
Notre Dame has solid playing talent, but Ohio State looks more like an NFL expansion team. In a series of stories, FootballScoop noted that Ohio State has eight five-star recruits and 11 top 100 players (as measured by the 247Sports composite). Notre Dame has no five-star recruits and four top-100 players.
The longer the season goes, the more that depth comes into play and Ohio State's overall roster talent is simply a step ahead of Notre Dame. That'll matter at some point on Monday.
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