5 reasons why Billy Napier's Florida Gators could have their worst season ever in 2024

With Billy Napier's Florida Gators, preseason is usually the time for optimism. The Gators are undefeated and the 16 CFP slots are looking very, very inviting. But reality can be much harsher.

In truth, Florida is a team at a crossroads. Gator Nation thinks Napier has them heading in the right direction. But what if they're wrong? Here's why Florida could have the worst season ever in 2024.

5 reasons why Florida could have their worst season ever in 2024

Florida QB Graham Mertz is under plenty of pressure in 2024. (Photo Credit: Gainesville Sun)

#1 The new SEC creates a new urgency

With the addition of Oklahoma and Texas, the SEC got even tougher and there's even less room for error. In the last three seasons, UF has gone a total of 17-21 and hasn't had a winning season. The only other SEC program that hasn't had a winning season in that run is Auburn and Vanderbilt.

The potential of ending up 14th in a 16-team league isn't an inviting one for the Gators. But the new SEC has nine teams with a 10-win season in that last three-year run. How many of those teams can get the Gators to even stay close with another 6-7 season?

#2 Napier can't last through another bad season

Bottom line, Billy Napier's tenure has been incredibly unimpressive. The 2023 win over Tennessee is about the only time that the Gators have seemed like an SEC contender. Transition sometimes is helpful for a program, but it's always disruptive. The bottom line is that Napier won't survive with another 6-7 or 5-7 season.

If Napier does hit the road, that's four straight coaches who have been chased out of Gainesville. That's Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen and Napier. It's hard to sell your program as a great landing spot when it's starting to look more and more like a coaching graveyard.

#3 The QB position isn't a strength

Florida jump-started its program under Steve Spurrier with excellence at the quarterback position. Tim Tebow returned the Gators to that glory in the 2000s. But the sad truth is that Florida's QB situation has been shy of elite for most of the time since then.

Graham Mertz is, simply, a game manager. Yes, he threw for 2,903 yards and 20 scores a year ago. But the Florida offense stumbled through a 5-7 season because Florida gained just 6.1 yards per play.

The Gators need something more than a manager. If Anthony Richardson couldn't get Florida going, what chance does Mertz have?

#4 The 2024 schedule is brutal

Had Florida realized that 2024 would have such high potential to be a make-or-break season, they probably would have scheduled a bit lighter. The Gators open with Miami and also play UCF and Florida State in their non-conference games.

Meanwhile, league play includes a brutal last-four games run of Georgia, at Texas, LSU and Ole Miss.

If Florida doesn't get off to a good start and hit November with at least a 5-2 mark, the season could be a disaster. The final month could become a miserable funeral slog for a vulnerable UF team.

#5 The offensive line is a massive question mark

For everything said about the quarterback above, the offensive line is a hidden key to UF's success. In 2018 and 2019, when UF last won 10 games, the Gator offense line allowed just 43 sacks in both seasons. Last year, UF allowed 39 in a single year.

Florida does return three starters, but it's not clear that being a part of the 2023 Florida offensive line is a credential to claim. The Gator path to relevance will start up front, and it's far from clear that the offensive line is ready to help.

What do you think about Florida's situation in 2024? Weigh in below with your thoughts in our comments section!