Big 12 QB passing projections for 2024 College Football season

Passing projections aren't easy to make, and the analysts who make those projections use math to make them as accurate as possible. While they are not perfect, they give fans a general idea of what to expect from quarterbacks in the upcoming season.

The Big 12 has several great quarterbacks, but some stand out from the pack. Here, they're ranked based on 2024 passing projections.

Every Big 12 starting quarterback's passing projections

#1. Noah Fifita, Arizona

Fifita was the Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year in 2023. He had nearly 2,900 yards in his rookie season, and there's no reason to believe he shouldn't improve this year as he matures physically.

Projected Stats: 3,320 yards

#2. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

After moving to the Big 12 team last season, Sanders had an impressive season. He had more than 3,200 yards last year and should improve. His offensive line is weaker, so fans expect those factors to cancel each other out and result in similar numbers.

Projected Stats: 3,200 yards

#3. Jalon Daniels, Kansas

Injuries are a concern for Daniels, but when healthy, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12. He threw for 2,000 yards in 2022 before injuries halted him last year. Fortunately, Kansas's easy schedule should help Daniels pad his stats.

Projected Stats: 3,160 yards

#4. Cameron Rising, Utah

Rising was a budding star in 2022, throwing for over 3,000 yards. If that was all we had to go on, he'd be at the top of projected passing yards. Unfortunately, injuries derailed him last season, but if he can stay healthy, he should have similar passing projections.

Projected Stats: 3,120 yards

#5. Rocco Becht, Iowa State

Becht was the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year last season and looks to build on that season. After throwing for 3,100 yards last season, there's no reason to believe he couldn't replicate that this year with many receiving threats available to him.

Projected Stats: 3,100 yards

#6. Garrett Greene, West Virginia

Greene broke out last season and could improve again. That said, a lot of his yardage comes from running. After throwing for 2,400 yards last season, Greene will likely have the chance to throw for more yards, with defenses putting more focus on him as a running threat.

Projected Stats: 2,720 yards

#7. Alan Bowman, Oklahoma State

After several years as a backup, Bowman finally broke out in his sixth college season last year, throwing for 3,400 yards. He's capable of slinging the ball downfield, but it often lands in opponents' hands. He'll likely regress a little bit after an outlier season last year.

Projected Stats: 2,650 yards

#8. KJ Jefferson, Central Florida

Jefferson transferred to the Big 12 after a down year in Arkansas, throwing for only 2,100 yards. He had thrown for over 2,600 yards in his previous two seasons, so he should bounce back with a stronger UCF squad.

Projected Stats: 2,570 yards

#9. Avery Johnson, Kansas State

There's a lot of excitement around Johnson, but his lack of experience keeps his passing projections lower. He performed well in his only start last season, throwing for 178 yards. In a full season as the starter, Johnson could explode offensively.

Projected Stats: 2,340 yards

#10. Dequan Finn, Baylor

Finn will look to turn things around for Baylor, which has not had a winning season since 2021. Finn threw for 2,600 yards last year for Toledo but will likely regress slightly against stronger competition.

Projected Stats: 2,250 yards

#11. Donovan Smith, Houston

Smith is a transfer from Texas Tech who threw for over 2,800 yards last season. Unfortunately, his offensive line could limit his passing projections this year. So, you shouldn't be surprised if he regresses slightly.

Projected Stats: 2,220 yards

#12. Josh Hoover, TCU

Hoover is still young but performed well in his rookie season in 2023. He needs to limit his interceptions after having seven last season. He could improve slightly this year, but on a weak TCU team, he'll be limited by the players around him.

Projected Stats: 2,190 yards

#13. Behren Morton, Texas Tech

Morton has been trying to live up to expectations since getting recruited as a four-star prospect in 2021. He took a step forward last year, throwing for 1,700 yards, and as the undisputed starter this year, he should improve again.

Projected Stats: 2,000 yards

#14. Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati

Sorsby should win the starting role in Cincinnati, but it's not a guarantee with Brady Lichtenberg also competing. Sorsby threw for 1,500 yards last season, performing the best among Cincinnati QBs. However, with his starting job not guaranteed, he can't have higher passing projections.

Projected Stats: 1,830 yards

#15. Jake Retzlaff, BYU

Retzlaff will compete with UCF transfer Gerry Bohanon for the starting job in 2024. He gets the edge to win the starting job after starting the final four games of last season, throwing for 600 yards. Even if he wins the job, he'll likely split time with other QBs, limiting his passing projections.

Projected Stats: 1,600 yards

#16. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State

Arizona State has three players competing for the starting quarterback role in 2024. Leavitt is the early favorite as a former four-star prospect, but he only appeared in 45 snaps last season. Arizona State is likely to have a rotation of starters, so no one should have high passing projections.

Projected Stats: 1,450 yards