CFP national championship predictions: Which team has better odds to make natty in 2025?

A 12-team field has become four, which means the winner of the College Football Playoff (and the odds-on favorite) is within sight. With a pair of semifinal games and then the championship remaining, Ohio State has emerged as a massive title favorite. But here's the rundown on the betting situation and ESPN's FPI predictions for all the CFP scenarios.

Which team has better odds to make the natty?

Both the betting odds and ESPN's FPI predictions like Notre Dame to beat Penn State and reach the CFP title game. (Photo Credit: IMAGN)

Ohio State

As noted, Ohio State is the favorite of the four remaining teams to win the CFP. They are a solid six-point favorite over Texas in their semifinal matchup. This leaves OSU with a moneyline of around -225 to make the championship game and, by far, the most likely team to make the final.

If Ohio State wins and faces Notre Dame in the final, they'd be a 6.5-point favorite. If they face Penn State, they will do so as a seven-point favorite. Ohio State is at -110 to win the CFP, so they are the semifinal favorite in betting terms.

But predictions aren't always uniform. ESPN's FPI gives Ohio State a 49.4% chance of beating Texas in the semifinals. So either the FPI computer data sees something that the sportsbooks are missing... or ESPN will be very wrong.

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish are the second most likely team to make the national title game. Notre Dame is a 1.5-point favorite over Penn State in their semifinal clash. That equates to a moneyline of around -135.

As noted above, Notre Dame would be a 6.5-point underdog against Ohio State in a title matchup. Notre Dame would be a 2.5-point underdog against Texas should the Irish win while the Longhorns pull an upset.

ESPN would actually place the Irish first, as its FPI makes Notre Dame a solid favorite over Penn State, with a 58.7% chance of victory. It's a good path for the Irish.

Penn State

Penn State is the third most likely team to appear in the national title game. As 1.5-point underdogs against Notre Dame, Penn State's current moneyline is hanging around +115.

The Nittany Lions would be seven-point underdogs against Ohio State in the title game and would also be three-point underdogs against Texas should each semifinal game end in an upset. To make matters worse, ESPN's FPI makes the Nittany Lions an underdog in the semifinal, with just a 41.3% chance of beating Notre Dame.

Texas

The Longhorns are the least likely team to appear in the national championship, per betting odds. They are six-point underdogs to Ohio State, with betting moneylines around +185 for the Longhorns in the semifinal.

The good news for Texas is that, as noted above, if the Longhorns can sneak past Ohio State, Texas would be favored over either Penn State or Notre Dame for the national championship. It's getting there that might prove challenging for the Longhorns.

As noted above, FPI makes the Horns a slight (50.6% win chance) favorite over Ohio State, so there's reason for the Longhorns to hope for certain. If the computers are smarter than the betting lines, Texas fans could laugh all the way to the bank.

What do you think about the CFP's odds projections? Share your take below on which team can beat the odds in our comments section!