College Football Playoff expansion: Exploring the "mock selection" process for new 12-team format

The College Football Playoff management committee was able to reach some clarity on the details of the upcoming 12-team playoff, which is set to commence in 2024. This took place during two days of meetings of the stakeholders and concluded on Wednesday.

For the first time in CFP history, playoff games will be hosted on campuses. The first round of the postseason competition will feature seeds 5–12, and games will be hosted on the campuses of seeds 5–8. Nonetheless, a good number of school have to prepare for this.

"The four first-round games are arguably the biggest change in FBS football probably since the BCS came," executive director Bill Hancock said. "Only four schools will host those games, but 40 or so have to plan to host, so there are a lot of details in there."

The mock College Football Playoff selection

During the last concluded meeting, conference commissioners conducted a College Football Playoff bracketing exercise using the final rankings of 2022. This saw a couple of movements in the ranking before the bracketing.

One of the things that came up in the bracketing is the probability of conference champions ranking lower than the at-large teams. This pretty much goes against the initial format when the 6–6 model and subsequently the 5-7 model were introduced. There will be explanations for this.

"We're going to have to educate people," Aresco said. "You're going to see champions who get ranked lower than the guys who are at-large. That's something we're going to have to explain."

It’s worth noting that the bowls will rely on existing partnerships for the next two years of the College Football Playoff contract. This also goes against the privilege of high-seed teams selecting bowl games of their choice.

The Big Ten will essentially secure a spot in the Rose Bowl for the quarterfinals. The ACC champion will be placed in the Orange Bowl, while the higher-ranked SEC or Big 12 champion will head to the Sugar Bowl.

Army-Navy to be excluded from playoffs

The College Football Playoff announced on Wednesday that it will not factor in the result of the Army-Navy game into its selection process. The two oldest military schools in the United States won’t get the opportunity to challenge for the national championship.

"They both stressed that they wanted to keep their game where it's currently scheduled," Hancock said. "Understanding that neither team would have the benefit of an additional data point to be considered by the committee."

The traditional scheduling of the Army-Navy game on the second Saturday in December presents complications for CFP selection. This will be six days after the selection committee has picked the participating 12 teams. To avoid further hassles, it’s best to leave them out.