Florida Gators football score predictions: Exploring Billy Napier's chances of beating Miami

After an 11-14 start to the Billy Napier era, Florida desperately needs a win to open Napier's third season in 2024. Fresh off Florida State's 13-win season in 2023, Miami has a fueled-up roster for the upcoming season.

As noted above, the Gators are certainly weaker than what the Hurricanes have amassed in their locker room. QB Cam Ward and RB Damien Martinez, each a portal addition, are easily superior to anybody UF has at their respective positions.

Florida vs. Miami: Score Prediction

Even on the road, Miami is a slight favorite in the sportsbooks, generally being a 2.5-point road favorite. That said, ESPN's FPI projects Florida to win, giving the Gators a 57.5% chance at victory.

Florida is a bit more experienced and maybe even a bit more predictable. Miami definitely has a higher ceiling, but might have a lower floor. If Billy Napier's team can put Miami in an early corner, the Gators could pull the mild home upset.

On the other hand, given Miami's skill position standouts, forcing UF to be aggressive could render the Hurricanes a safe pick.

Prediction: Miami 35, Florida 27, UF's chances of victory: 35%.

Florida coach Billy Napier badly needs a Week 1 win over Miami. But can he get it? (Photo Credit: IMAGN)

Florida vs. Miami matchup: Gators offense & Hurricanes' defense

A season ago, Florida averaged 28.4 points and 409 yards per game. Graham Mertz, back this season, was competent but not amazing.

He threw just three interceptions in 358 passes, but Florida's 8.0 yards per pass attempt ranked just 8th in a 14-team SEC.

Top rusher Montrell Johnson (817 yards) is also back, but the question mark is an offensive line that allowed 39 sacks. Miami held opponents to 22.8 points and 322 yards per game a year ago. A solid front returns, as does LB Francisco Mauigoa (82 tackles, 18 tackles for loss).

Florida vs. Miami Matchup: Gators defense & Hurricanes' offense

On the other hand, Miami scored 31.5 points and gained 431 yards per game last year. The previously mentioned additions of Ward and Martinez should make Miami even better.

Receviers Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George are both stars, and the offensive line allowed just 16 sacks last year and four of five starters return.

Meanwhile, the Gators defense was pretty average. UF allowed 27.6 points and 382 yards per game. UF returns its top two tacklers and standout CB Jason Marshall.

Last year, UF started strong, holding opponents to 3.5 yards per carry or less in five of the first six games, but then giving up 4.5 yards per carry or more in each of the next five games.

Florida vs. Miami Matchup: Special teams

Both teams have above-average special teams. Florida's kickers are perhaps a bit better, with Trey Smack going 17 for 21 on field goals, including a 54-yard make.

Miami's kicker, Andres Borregales, hit 22 of 26 kicks, including a 51-yarder. Punter Dylan Joyce was competent. Top returner Brashard Smith is gone, but Miami has a bit more experience and maybe a bit more explosiveness in the return game.

What do you think of UF's chances against Miami? Share your thoughts and predictions below in our comments section!