Mario Cristobal contract buyout: How much does Miami owe its head coach if Cristobal gets fired?

Despite a 9-0 start, another bowl loss has warmed the Mario Cristobal hot seat. The Miami Hurricanes held another late lead in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Saturday, only to end up losing 42-41 against a clutch Iowa State Cyclones.

Whether it was sitting quarterback Cam Ward for the second half, players scuffling on the sideline or another defensive breakdown, things didn’t seem to click in Orlando for the Hurricanes.

With the season over, the Mario Cristobal hot seat watch has begun. It was reported by the Athletic that a buyout would cost the University of Miami $62 million.

Cristobal is in the third year of a 10-year, $80 million contract with Miami, so it's unlikely the Hurricanes will have anyone else on the sidelines for a while.

Mario Cristobal hot seat watch: What has gone wrong during his stint as Miami coach?

There are two key components for college coaches in today’s game. First, they are in charge of recruiting the talent necessary to compete. Then, coaches have to mold that talent and make it work on the field.

If it was all about recruiting, the Mario Cristobal hot seat would be a lot cooler. He has been able to get enough talent to Coral Gables. The latest example is Cam Ward, who finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy race. Meanwhile, running back Damien Martinez came over from Oregon State.

The overall recruiting has been impressive. Miami ranked fourth in the nation in 2024, according to 247Sports. For 2025, the Canes are 14th as December is coming to an end.

But even with all the talent Cristobal has been able to gather, the results on the field aren’t there. Miami went 12-13 in his first two years at the helm. For a program expected to contend every year, those numbers are disappointing.

In 2024, the Hurricanes went 10-3 but failed to make the College Football Playoff after dropping two of their final three regular season games.

The loss at Syracuse to close the season was hard to take. Miami held a 21-point lead in the first half. Trailing 42-35 with 3:42 left to play, the Canes had 4th and goal at the Syracuse 10-yard line. Cristobal opted to kick a field goal, but the Hurricanes' defense could not stop the Orange in the following drive.

Then there was that fateful decision not to take a knee against Georgia Tech in a game the Hurricanes should have won in 2023.

After the latest collapse by the Hurricanes, the Mario Cristobal hot seat might be warming up, but a change still feels unlikely.