Mountain West Power Rankings 2023: Boise State Back on Top

The 2023 college football season will soon be upon us, and our Mountain West Power Rankings looks ahead to what you can expect from the 12 teams battling it out in the conference. In a time of perpetual change for the sport, can the Mountain West provide consistency at the top or even provide one of the top teams in the Group of Five?

Mountain West Power Rankings 2023

Our Mountain West Power Rankings for the 2023 college football season take into account a number of factors. Overall roster, coaching staff changes, schedule, and predicted record all play a part in ranking the 12 Mountain West programs from first to worst.

1) Boise State Broncos

One year after going undefeated through the conference regular season but falling short of lifting the title, the Boise State Broncos sit atop our Mountain West power rankings. Circle Week 10 as the moment that defines whether Andy Avalos' team can live up to the hype, as they face off against a Fresno State Bulldogs team who beat them in the conference title game back in December. However, nothing about this team suggests anything other than a dominant conference juggernaut in 2023.

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The Broncos' confidence begins at the quarterback position, with Taylen Green ranked as the number-one passer in the Mountain West. He's a dangerous dual-threat, making a Boise State offense that features George Holani as the conference's top running back, a difficult proposition to gameplan for. A former linebacker, head coach Avalos has the Broncos playing a dominant breed of defensive football with leading tackler from 2022 D.J. Schramm at the heart.

2) Fresno State Bulldogs

Jeff Tedford was the architect of Fresno State's only 12-win season -- in 2018 -- and he returned to the program after a two-year absence to guide them to the Mountain West championship last fall. They've featured in the AP Poll rankings at some point in three of his four seasons at the helm, and it would be a fool to bet against them making another appearance in 2023 -- especially if they can get a win over Power Five opponents Purdue and Arizona State early in the season.

The departure of Jake Haener, Jalen Moreno-Cropper, and Jordan Mims is a key factor in their dropping behind Boise in our Mountain West power rankings. It's tough to lose all that offensive production, especially from a leader like Haener. UCF transfer Mikey Keene picks up the baton at QB and has the arm strength and accuracy to be a dangerous threat in the conference. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs' defense is rich in talent, with CB Cam Lockridge one of the best in the business.

3) San Jose State Spartans

The San Jose State Spartans had a rock-solid defense that allowed just 22.0 points per game during the 2022 season. We're going to find out how good that unit can be following the loss of Cade Hall and Junior Fehoko very quickly -- the Spartans face free-scoring USC in Week 0 as a 30+ point underdog. If they can be competitive in that clash, there's every chance they can weather a conference storm that includes a road trip to Boise State and a home game with Fresno State.

With such severe defensive losses causing concerns for a dominant unit, you're probably wondering why San Jose State sits third in our Mountain West power rankings leapfrogging over teams they finished last season behind. Two words. Chevan Cordeiro. The QB had a career year in 2022 and can build on that in 2023 behind an offensive line that's more experienced and returns four starters. Top target Elijah Cooks is gone, but Justin Lockhart is one of the best WRs around.

4) Air Force Falcons

Even by the standards of a long and successful career as the head coach, Troy Calhoun has raised the bar in the past two seasons leading the Air Force Falcons. He led the team to consecutive double-digit win campaigns from 2021-2022, with only the disrupted 2020 season preventing the program from achieving the feat in four consecutive seasons. For as long as Calhoun is at the helm, Air Force will start the season near the top of our Mountain West power rankings.

2023 is no different, and there's also the possibility to add another 10-win season with road games at Boise State and San Jose State the major potential roadblocks. One of the top defenses in the country returns some of its brightest talent, led by nose tackle Payton Zdroik and LB Alec Mock. While the departure of Brad Roberts and Haaziq Daniels is a significant offensive loss, watch out for the speed of John Lee Eldridge III to lead the way and terrorize defenses across the nation.

5) UNLV Rebels

After recording a five-win season in 2022, their best since 2017, many people outside the UNLV Rebels program were surprised to see Marcus Arroyo fired as head coach. However, new HC Barry Odom has very quickly assembled a coaching staff that has the potential to help the Rebels get over the hump and achieve unprecedented success. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a key component of that and impacts their place in our Mountain West power rankings.

The Rebels offense boasts College Football Network's second-ranked pass catcher in the conference -- Ricky White -- and third-best running back in Pitt transfer Vincent Davis. Meanwhile, a fully healthy Doug Brumfield could be dangerous in Marion's offense. To overcome a schedule that avoids Boise State but features road trips to Fresno State and Michigan, the defense will need to find a way to replace the production of linebacker duo Austin Ajiake and Adam Plant.

6) San Diego State Aztecs

By the time the offense got it figured out last season, it was too late for the San Diego State Aztecs, who dropped to 7-6 having gone 12-2 and reached the Mountain West title game in 2021. A late-season flurry of points lifted Brady Hoke's team over 20 per game, although they still ranked 108th in the FBS. While possessing one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the nation, they eeked out five conference wins on the back of a suffocating defense that ranked in the top 20.

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There could be a flip for the 2023 college football season, and that concern fuels a perhaps lower-than-expected position on our Mountain West power rankings. The front seven was decimated by departures, and it remains to be seen how much of an impact that will be. That said, CB duo Dezjhon Malone and Davaughn Celestine are capable of locking down opposition offenses. Multi-use special teams' weapon Jack Browning gives the Aztecs a weapon if they find themselves in a close game.

7) Utah State Aggies

2022 was a come-down for the Utah State Aggies, going from an 11-3 Mountain West-winning team to a 6-7 program who were dealt a beating in the First Responder Bowl. Incredibly, they were just one win removed from the previous year's conference record. On such fine margins are football games won, and positions in our Mountain West power rankings gained. How they rebound while battling roster turnover is difficult to ascertain right now.

The losses from last year's roster are brutal, particularly on defense. Between AJ Vongphachanh, Byron Vaughns, and Daniel Grzesiak, they lose 32 tackles for loss and their sack leader. On offense, Calvin Tyler Jr. has been the heartbeat for two seasons, but he's no longer there. Cooper Legas is the presumptive starter at QB, but needs to consistently deploy his strong arm while maintaining his health. The Aggies have one of the best WRs in the conference in the shape of Terrell Vaughn.

8) Wyoming Cowboys

Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl is one of the highest paid coaches in the Mountain West, hardly surprising given that the Cowboys have had just one losing season (2020) in the past seven and are regularly in the hunt near the top of the conference. With a ferocious defensive front led by DeVonne Harris, they're a definite contender to rise in our Mountain West power rankings. So, why do they begin the year positioned down near the bottom of the pack?

The defense couldn't carry the offense last season, especially down the stretch. The departure of Titus Swen is a blow for that unit, as he was responsible for most of their success -- when they had some. While incoming rusher Harrison Waylee certainly adds a versatile spark, there are too many question marks over the potential for the unit with Andrew Peasley at quarterback to be confident of them overcoming a schedule featuring Boise State, Fresno State, and Air Force.

9) Colorado State Rams

Year two under Jay Norvell has to be better. The Colorado State Rams limped to three wins -- all of them in the Mountain West -- last fall as the former Nevada coach began to make the team his own. That transition continued into the offseason, with several transfer portal additions that could see six newcomers on the starting offense. Their schedule features two of the three teams below them in our Mountain West power rankings, which should help beat last year's win total.

The newcomers on offense include three new offensive linemen, who should help extract the most from inconsistent quarterback Clay Millen. He has the best receiver in the Mountain West at his disposal in the shape of Tory Horton, so there are no excuses. The RB situation is a little bit darker, with leading rusher Avery Morrow indefinitely suspended and few scholarship backs on the roster. The defense, boosted by several transfers, returns safety Jack Howell at its heart.

10) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors looked nostalgically at past success when they hired legendary quarterback Timmy Chang to take over as head coach last year. The move didn't pay immediate dividends, with just three wins and a .250 record in the conference. As a result, they begin the year near the bottom of our Mountain West power rankings, but there is the potential for more wins this year -- especially as they avoid both Boise State and Fresno State in conference play.

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The program infused the roster with a range of Power Five experience and JUCO standouts through the offseason, with a practically rebuilt defensive front hoping to be the key to defensive improvement. The Rainbow Warriors allowed 34.7 points last fall so something had to change. Hopes of offensive success are tied to Brayden Schager developing his game to match Chang's system, but in RB Tylan Hines they have a genuine superstar who averaged 7.6 yards per pop in 2022.

11) Nevada Wolfpack

The big question for the Nevada Wolfpack is, how much better than last year can they be? The answer, according to their lowly positioning in our Mountain West power rankings, might be not much. Ken Wilson took over a team that was a shadow of the program that has routinely been a contender in the conference, and the turnaround job might take more than one season. They face several of the teams around them in these rankings, so there's a shot at wins. However...

A road game to Fresno State to open conference play isn't ideal, neither is facing USC and Kansas in out-of-conference play. That becomes more disconcerting when you're QB situation isn't resolved. Former Colorado passer Brendon Lewis appears to have a leg up but hasn't fought off Shane Illingworth or even freshman Jax Leatherwood just yet. On the plus side, further Power Five transfers Sean Dollars, Ashton Hayes, and Jackson LaDuke should hasten improvements.

12) New Mexico Lobos

With six conference wins in the last six seasons, the New Mexico Lobos remain rooted to the bottom of the conference and, subsequently, start the season propping up our Mountain West power rankings. Their schedule offers some hope of surpassing last season's two-win total, with back-to-back games against Hawaii and Nevada likely circled as their best hope of wins in the conference. However, hope fades late in the season with road trips to Boise State and Fresno State.

Head coach Danny Gonzalez bolstered his coaching staff with several new additions, notably bringing former UAB interim head coach Bryant Vincent on board as offensive coordinator. His arrival facilitates a legitimate QB for the Lobos, with Dylan Hopkins following his former coach to provide an upgrade for the offense. The defense actually ranked in the top half of the nation for points allowed last fall, but the departure of AJ Haulcy and AJ Odoms is significant.