Big 12 Bowl Projections after Week 5: Way too early postseason picture for Colorado, BYU and more

The 2024 college football season is in full swing as things shift to Week 6, and the Big 12 has been strong in the early stages. The conference's 16 teams went 49-26 over the first five weeks of the season, including an impressive 33-10 mark in non-conference games.

The Big 12 has four teams ranked in the latest rendition of the AP Top 25 poll, as the Oklahoma State Cowboys fell from the rankings after a 42-20 loss to the Kansas State Wildcats. Three additional teams, including Oklahoma State, were among the others receiving votes.

Six teams have at least four wins with one loss or less, while three other members are 3-1. ESPN gives 12 teams a 61.2% chance or better of winning at least six games to be deemed bowl-eligible. Ten of those teams' chances sit at 84.8% or better. Take a look at an early prediction of the Big 12's postseason picture.

Big 12 Bowl Projections after Week 5

College Football Playoff bye: Utah Utes

The No. 18-ranked Utah Utes suffered their first loss of the season last weekend, falling to 4-1 and 2-1 in Big 12 play. Despite the early season loss in conference play, starting quarterback Cam Rising appears set to return after a Week 6 off. His return will give their struggling offense a boost to support a strong defensive unit.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Indiana Hoosiers

The Colorado Buffaloes appear on track to reach a bowl game in coach Deion Sanders' second season leading the program. Sitting at 4-1 and 2-0 in conference play, they have an off in Week 6.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Army Black Knights

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 4-1 and have won their first two games of Big 12 play. They will look to extend their winning streak to four after a shaky start when they face the Arizona Wildcats in Week 6.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have started their Big 12 schedule with back-to-back losses in matchups between ranked opponents to fall to 3-2. After reaching as high as 13th, they have now dropped out of the rankings altogether. Their conference schedule will get easier in the coming weeks, beginning with a Week 6 matchup with the West Virginia Mountaineers.

DIRECTV Holiday Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Duke Blue Devils

The Arizona State Sun Devils have started 3-1. However, they dropped their first game as a member of the Big 12 ahead of their Week 5 off. They will return to the field against the struggling Kansas Jayhawks this weekend.

Pop-Tarts Bowl: BYU Cougars vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

The No. 17-ranked BYU Cougars have looked great through five games as they are undefeated, including in two Big 12 matchups. The Cougars have an off in Week 6.

Valero Alamo Bowl: Iowa State Cyclones vs. USC Trojans

The No. 16-ranked Iowa State Cyclones are off to a 4-0 record after winning their first conference game of the season last weekend. The Cyclones will face the Baylor Bears in Week 6.

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Oregon State Beavers

The UCF Knights are 3-1 to start the season and 1-1 in Big 12 play after suffering their first loss in Week 5. They will visit the Florida Gators this weekend.

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl: Arizona Wildcats vs. Washington State Cougars

The Arizona Wildcats have started the season 3-1, splitting their first two games as a member of the Big 12 against ranked opponents. The Wildcats will face the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 6.

Texas Bowl: Kansas State Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers

The No. 20-ranked Kansas State Wildcats are off to a 4-1 start, including a 2-1 record in Big 12 matchups. Both of those wins have come in meetings with ranked opponents. The Wildcats have Week 6 off.

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Navy Midshipmen

The TCU Horned Frogs are 3-2 and 1-1 in the conference but have a relatively easy schedule. That begins with a Week 6 matchup with the 1-4 Houston Cougars.