College Football Playoff bubble watch: Alabama inches closer to make 12-team field after Iron Bowl win

College football was pure chaos during rivalry week, but was it enough for the Alabama Crimson Tide to get back into the College Football Playoff field? With a 9-3 record, the Crimson Tide needed some help to make it back into the playoff field, and, at the very least, they are still in contention.

They at least got a few breaks go their way in Week 14. The Ohio State Buckeyes lost a shocker to the archrival Michigan Wolverines, the Miami Hurricanes let a 21-point lead slip during a visit to Syracuse and the Clemson Tigers dropped a close game to the South Carolina Gamecocks.

The Canes and Buckeyes dropped their second games of the year, while the Tigers are now at 9-3, just like Kalen DeBoer’s squad. The Crimson Tide took care of their own business, defeating the Auburn Tigers 28-14 at home in the Iron Bowl, making one last push to show the playoff committee they belong in the expanded College Football Playoff.

Alabama's efforts could be enough to overcome its three costly defeats. But its playoff hopes depend on the results of the championship games and the committee's interpretation of the conference's pecking order.

How will the conference championship games affect the CFP rankings?

Tuesday will mark the penultimate release of the College Football Playoff rankings, as the final list will come out on Sunday. With the regular season complete and most teams idle, some championship games might shake the postseason outlook.

What happens in the ACC Championship Game could have the biggest consequences for bubble teams of any other matchup this weekend. At 11-1, would SMU be able to withstand a loss and still make the College Football Playoff?

The Mustangs were ranked 9th in last week's CFP rankings but figure to gain at least one spot after the Miami loss. Still, how would the committee react if they lose a close one to Clemson (9-3), which tumbled six spots to No. 18 in Sunday's AP rankings? Would the committee open the door to a three-loss SEC team like Alabama?

A Tigers win would create more chaos, as they would make the field as one of the top five conference champions, meaning Clemson would jump over some teams ranked ahead of them by virtue of their ACC title.

The Boise State Broncos would also make the field winning their conference championship game against UNLV. If they don't, perhaps the Rebels would take the Group of Five spot. The winner of the Big 12 Championship Game, Iowa State vs. Arizona State, will also take a spot.

In the SEC title game, a Texas win would mean Georgia has three losses, but the last one would be in the conference championship game, which should be viewed differently by the committee.

Teams in the College Football Playoff

Following the latest AP Top 25 poll, there are a handful of teams that have practically clinched their College Football Playoff ticket already. The No. 1 Oregon Ducks, No. 2 Texas Longhorns, No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions, No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish and No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers seem to be in, no matter what.

Should be in

Georgia Bulldogs

The fifth-ranked Bulldogs (10-2) have one more game, as they face Texas in the title game. A win would likely mean both teams are in. If the Bulldogs lose, they will do it against a team they already beat on the road during the regular season. It feels like the committee wouldn't leave the Bulldogs out.

Ohio State Buckeyes

The seventh-ranked Buckeyes' loss to Michigan was bad, but for a team that had already beaten two top 10 teams in Penn State and Indiana and lost by a single point at Oregon, it's probably not enough to knock them out of the College Football Playoff. Without any more games on the docket, they'll likely be stuck wherever they land with the committee this week.

However, if Ohio State loses, that would give the Buckeyes two consecutive losses. They already dropped five spots to No. 7 in the AP poll on Sunday.

Indiana Hoosiers

As they have done in 2024, the No. 9 Hoosiers (11-1) beat up on lesser competition to close out the season, trouncing Purdue 66-0. With their only loss against Ohio State, Curt Cignetti's team should be comfortably in the 12-team CFP.

On the bubble

SMU Mustangs

The No. 8 Mustangs (11-1) have been the most consistent team in the ACC, and are playing for a shot at earning a conference title and a first-round bye. A win versus Clemson would ensure SMU's presence in the College Football Playoff, but what happens if they lose?

Alabama Crimson Tide

The Crimson Tide's win over Auburn probably won’t sway many voters, as the Tigers had a terrible season. While No. 11 Alabama (9-3) has looked strong at times, bad losses to unranked Vanderbilt and Oklahoma could be their undoing.

However, the Tide beat No. 13 South Carolina (9-3) during the season. If the College Football Playoff committee considers the head-to-head result as the main tiebreaker, that win could loom large.

Alabama has the luxury of not playing in a conference title game, so the Tide can take advantage of a loss or two moving them up a peg in Sunday's final CFP rankings.

South Carolina Gamecocks

After starting 3-3, the Gamecocks are one of the country's hottest teams. They came back to defeat then-No. 12 Clemson 17-14 to finish the season on a six-game winning streak. While South Carolina lost a close game to Alabama in Tuscaloosa, it's playing its best football and its three losses came against ranked opponents.

Miami Hurricanes

The loss to Syracuse was a brutal blow to the Hurricanes’ playoff chances. A win against the Orange would have sent Miami (10-2) to the ACC Championship Game versus SMU, with both teams likely making the College Football Playoff regardless of the score.

The Canes wasted a 21-point lead, and their defense, a weak spot all season long, couldn’t stop Syracuse when they needed to, jeopardizing – and likely ending – any playoff hopes. Miami dropped six spots to No. 14 in the AP poll on Sunday.

Ole Miss Rebels

Another three-loss SEC team and the least likely to make the field. The No. 15 Rebels have been behind Alabama for weeks, and an unimpressive win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs doesn’t figure to give them enough ammo to make a final push for the College Football Playoff.