Exploring worst-case scenarios for Kalen DeBoer's Alabama that can stop Crimson Tide from reaching the CFP

Alabama is in unfamiliar College Football Playoff territory. Under Nick Saban, the Tide rarely lost to anybody, much less an unranked Vanderbilt team.

However, No. 7 Alabama sits at 5-1, still given a 69.2% shot at a spot in the College Football Playoff by ESPN's FPI. (Then again, remember that the Crimson Tide were 5-1 and ranked No. 11 a year ago before winning the Southeastern Conference championship game and making the four-team CFP.)

What could unravel that hope? Here's a quick rundown on what Alabama has to avoid.

Worst-case scenarios for Alabama to miss CFP

Alabama's CFP hopes could be improved by continued solid play by Vanderbilt. (Photo Credit: IMAGN)

#1, Lose two more games

An 11-1 Alabama team would be in the College Football Playoff. A 10-2 Alabama team is very, very likely in the playoffs. It's that third loss that would start to make things tenuous. That's not to say a 9-3 Tide team couldn't make it to the CFP, but there would be other factors in play.

Meanwhile, Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC) has a tough schedule run upcoming. The Tide visit No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1) this weekend, will play Missouri next week and then will travel to No. 8 LSU (5-1, 2-0) on Nov. 9. If Alabama can survive those, a final three games of Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn don't look too threatening. But the Tide can't create their own havoc by losing games.

#2, Watch Vanderbilt struggle

In a crowded SEC playoff situation, small details, like the quality of losses, will matter. Alabama fans should be low-key fans of Vanderbilt for the remainder of this season. A loss to a 7-5 or 8-4 Vandy team is bad ... but not as bad as a loss to a 4-8 Vanderbilt team.

Eigteenth-ranked Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2) already lost to a Kentucky team that could struggle to make a bowl. Tennessee lost to an Arkansas team that's in similar shape. A bad loss isn't the worst thing in the world for Alabama, but it would help their situation if the Commodores play well for the rest of the season.

#3, Have clear definition among the other teams of the SEC.

Alabama's best argument for making the CFP is that at least three SEC teams will likely be in the field, if not four or even five. Also, everybody except top-ranked Texas (6-0, 2-0) already has a loss. That's why the Horns have a roughly 96% playoff shot per ESPN, while everybody else is below Alabama's 69% chance.

The best thing that can happen for the Tide is a little league-on-league violence. Ole Miss taking a second loss to LSU, for instance, probably helped. It dropped the Rebels to a 23% shot at the CFP, while LSU still has just a 26% chance.

Second-ranked Georgia (5-1, 3-1) is essentially even with Alabama, with a 68.5% playoff chance. The Tide would love to see the Bulldogs hit a stumble or two the rest of the way. Tennessee is the fourth-most likely SEC team with a 45% chance, although Alabama itself can put a dent in that number. (Georgia visits Texas on Saturday.)

The worst-case scenario for Alabama would be Texas, Georgia and some other SEC team earning their ways into the playoffs ahead of a 9-3 Alabama squad. The bigger mess the league's standings are, the more it helps the Tide.

4) Other conferences have bid stealers.

The other issue, which Alabama can't control, will come with conference championship games. Alabama wants favorites to win those games. While the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 don't have divisional play anymore, which should help with this problem, upsets can hurt. If a Group of Five favorite like Boise State takes a conference title loss, that could jump a second G5 team into the CFP mix.

The Tide also don't want the No. 2 team from the Big 12 possibly stealing a bid. Getting a couple more losses for No. 12 Notre Dame (5-1) probably doesn't hurt Alabama any either. The point is that while the Tide want SEC chaos, they want according-to-chalk results outside their league.

What do you think of Alabama's CFP path? Share your thoughts and comments below!