"He got overinflated": Michael Penix's junior draft stock fall explained by ESPN draft expert as 2024 NFL draft draws closer

2024 CFP National Championship - Michigan v Washington
2024 CFP national championship game: Michigan vs. Washington

Michael Penix Jr. has undoubtedly been one of the top quarterbacks in college football in the last two seasons. He showcased his talent at Washington, leading the Football Bowl Subdivision in passing yards in each of those seasons.

However, Penix's draft stock has witnessed some downward movement since the conclusion of the national championship game last month.

“I think he got overinflated after the Texas game, and he carved up Texas (in the Sugar Bowl), there's no mistake about that,” Miller said on "The Matt Barrie Show." “It's one of the best passing games I've seen from a college quarterback in a long time.
“But before the Texas game, Michael Penix was a second-round pick. After the Michigan game, Michael Penix was a second-round pick. There was just that 10-day span there after the Texas game where people were like, ‘Oh, wait, that was a flawless performance.’”

Injury history likely to affect Michael Penix Jr.'s draft stock

Michael Penix Jr. spent his first four seasons in college football at Indiana but each of them ended halfway with an injury. Matt Miller believes this could cause some concerns for his draft stock until a proper medical evaluation is done at the combine.

“It all goes back to some of the things we don't see on the field,” Miller said. “Four years in Indiana ended in season-ending injuries. He's had two ACL tears on the right leg, which as a left-footed thrower, you worry about that a little bit because it's your back leg. He's had two shoulder injuries. Those things do matter.
“I think for Penix, until the medical evaluation happens at the combine, it's going to be very hard to put a firm dot on his grade.”

Throughout his college football career, Michael Penix Jr. demonstrated strong decision-making skills, rarely risking turnovers thanks to his exceptional field awareness. He has refined his passing motion, adding more finesse when needing to throw over defenders.

These are great quarterback attributes that have been admired about him. Nonetheless, there's a belief that his previous injuries might have taken a toll on his athleticism and physical strength, which could make adaptation to the professional stage a difficult one.

Nonetheless, it is to be seen what his medical evaluation at the combine later this month looks like and how NFL teams and scouts view him from then onward.

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Edited by Joseph Schiefelbein
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