“Somewhere in the teens”: ESPN NFL draft expert Mel Kiper drops his verdict on J.J. McCarthy

Ever since Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy declared for the 2024 NFL draft, there has been quite a debate about where he will end up.

McCarthy led the Wolverines to a national championship this year, but his play has never stood out like prominent college signal-callers like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels.

Instead, McCarthy was just smart with the football and made the right throws while also handing the ball off quite a ton. Many draft analysts were torn on whether he would be a first-rounder.

On Tuesday, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. released his first mock draft, with McCarthy going 16th overall to the Seattle Seahawks. Still, Kiper admits he doesn't think the former Michigan quarterback is a first-round talent.

"OK, here's a spot for the next quarterback," Kiper said. "While I don't have a first-round grade on McCarthy right now -- a lot can change before Round 1 on April 25 -- he does have first-round arm talent, along with the ability to beat defenses with his legs.

"He's the type of quarterback teams will take a shot at in the middle of the first round, especially when you consider he just turned 21 a few days ago. He rarely turns the ball over -- he threw 44 touchdown passes and had nine picks over the past two seasons -- and can make every throw.

"McCarthy just wasn't asked to beat teams with his arm for the Wolverines, because they so often dominated at the line of scrimmage. As of now, I'm betting on a team seeing his upside and trying to take him somewhere in the teens."

With NFL teams desperate to draft quarterbacks, Kiper believes that will make McCarthy a first-round pick despite him likely not being an immediate starter in the NFL.

J.J. McCarthy's college stats

J.J. McCarthy was a two-year starter for Michigan and led the program to the College Football Playoff both years.

This past season, McCarthy went 240 for 332 for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. In the national championship game, McCarthy went just 10 for 18 for 140 yards, as the Wolverines relied on the run game to get the win.

In his college career, J.J. McCarthy went 482 for 713 for 6,226 yards, 49 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.