“They are simply going to be sacrificial lambs”: CFB analyst Paul Finebaum sounds the alarm for Group of 5 programs as CFP expands to 12-team format

The CFP is set to expand to 12 teams come the 2024 season. After 10 years of featuring the 4 best teams decided by the committee, the playoffs will now feature a 12-team bracket, with automatic bids into the second round of the playoffs for 4 conference champions.

The other eight teams will be chosen by the committee. This means that the winner of the SEC, BIG 12 BIG Ten, and a “Group of 5” school will make the playoffs. The Group of 5 are the 5 best conferences that are below the likes of the SEC, BIG 12, and Big Ten.

Upon hearing the news that one of the weaker teams would automatically enter the CFP, Paul Finebaum remarked as follows:

“ There is no way (Group of 5 schools) can compete, They are simply going to be sacrificial lambs.“

Finebaum believes that the Group of 5 team that gets the automatic bid will not be competitive and that their presence will hurt their program.

While it is good to see other conferences apart from the traditional big 3 (formally big 4 with the PAC 12) perform well, those from the aforementioned conferences are generally weaker than a number of teams from the powerhouses.

The expanded playoff format means that it is a guarantee that a group of 5 teams will face an opponent that is far stronger than them and one that has played a game extra. On 9 out of 10 occasions, the stronger team from the stronger conference would defeat a Group of 5 champion.

For example, the best Group of 5 teams last season were the Liberty Flames, who won the Conference USA. They were ranked 25 in the end-of-season poll, and faced the Oregon Ducks in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Flames were demolished by the Ducks 45-6. These teams are nowhere near strong enough to compete, but there was one occasion where a Group of 5 team made the CFP on merit.

The 2021 Cincinnati Bearcats: The Only Group of 5 team to make the CFP

Before they became a BIG 12 program, the Cincinnati Bearcats were in the AAC, one of the group of 5 conferences.

After a successful 2020 season, which ended with a narrow defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs, the Bearcats had an extraordinary 2021 season.

Cincinnati won the AAC with an unbeaten record. This unbeaten season made the College Football Playoff Committee consider their appearance in the CFP. In the end, the Bearcats were the number 4 seed in the playoffs and faced number one-ranked Alabama. The game went on to be dominated by the Crimson Tide, who won 27-6.

If this had happened under the new format, the Bearcats would have won the 4th seed by default. However, the Bearcats’ appearance in the CFP was purely on merit. Not only did they win their conference with an undefeated season, but they were considered by the committee as the 4th best team in the country that year on merit.

This was partly due to their strong side, which included the likes of QB Desmond Ridder and Sauce Gardner. However, not every Group of 5 team is going to be as good as them. They are the exception to the norm and generally, these teams will struggle in non-conference play and on the biggest stage of them all, against the Power 5 teams.